BOW Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BOW - Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc.
$25.10
0.54 (2.20%)
▲
5d:
-2.18%
30d:
-12.05%
90d:
+3.68%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: February 2, 2026
Earnings: Feb 24, 2026
20d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BOW shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BOW shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$46.06
Based on 12.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$28.60
12.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BOW is currently trading at $25.10, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.28 to $27.26. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.8) is in line with its historical norms (13.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 25.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BOW is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $25.80. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $34.29 (+36.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BOW is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $25.80. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $34.29 (+36.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$24.28 -
$27.26
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 36.6% below Wall St target ($34.29)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$24.28 -
$27.26
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$23.88
Resistance Level
$25.80
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.77
Wall Street Target
$34.29
(+36.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
23.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
25.0%
Profit Margin
10.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.8 vs 13.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$24.77
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$24.45
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$24.13
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→13)
$25.13
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 20.3%)
$76.28
(+204%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.8, Growth: 20.3%)
$43.69
(+74%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.9, Growth: 20.3%)
$37.14
(+48%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.74 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.56
Bull Case
$34.03
(+36%)
Analyst growth 26.0%, PE expands to 17.3
Base Case
$30.93
(+23%)
Market implied 26.0%, PE stable at 15.7
Bear Case
$16.70
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.8 to 13.3
Stabilization Target:
$26.13
(+4.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.1%
Last updated: February 03, 2026 4:53 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:53 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:53 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BOW showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Gallatin Point Capital L…
SELL
2000000 shares
2025-08-08
Matthew Botein
SELL
2000000 shares
2025-08-08
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