BSRR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BSRR - Sierra Bancorp
$37.27
-0.19 (-0.51%)
▼
5d:
-1.87%
30d:
+4.4%
90d:
+0.0%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 27, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BSRR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.2% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BSRR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.2% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$44.93
Based on 4.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$27.90
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BSRR is currently trading at $37.27, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $35.58 to $37.28. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.6) is in line with its historical norms (9.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BSRR is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $38.20. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: BSRR has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BSRR is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $38.20. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: BSRR has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$35.58 -
$37.28
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($40.25)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$35.58 -
$37.28
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$35.78
Resistance Level
$38.20
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.61
Wall Street Target
$40.25
(+8.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
47.7%
Profit Margin
29.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.2% premium
PE vs Historical
9.6 vs 9.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$37.34
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$37.42
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$37.49
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$37.06
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 4.1%)
$96.65
(+159%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.6, Growth: 4.1%)
$42.09
(+13%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.2, Growth: 4.1%)
$35.77
(-4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.95 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.42
Bull Case
$46.72
(+25%)
Analyst growth 13.4%, PE expands to 12.1
Base Case
$42.48
(+14%)
Market implied 13.4%, PE stable at 11.0
Bear Case
$25.47
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 7:20 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:20 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:20 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BSRR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Julie G Castle
SELL
250 shares
2026-02-13
James C Holly
SELL
5000 shares
2026-02-05
Julie G Castle
SELL
750 shares
2026-02-05
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