BWIN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BWIN - The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. Class A Common Stock
$21.96
-0.05 (-0.23%)
▼
5d:
-0.59%
30d:
-5.3%
90d:
-15.02%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: BWIN trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: BWIN trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$52.54
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$32.62
32.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BWIN is currently trading at $21.96, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.52 to $22.60. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.7) compared to its historical average (10.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BWIN is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $20.27, while resistance sits at $22.88.
Market Sentiment: BWIN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $30.22 (+37.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BWIN is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $20.27, while resistance sits at $22.88.
Market Sentiment: BWIN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $30.22 (+37.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$18.52 -
$22.60
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
76.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 37.3% below Wall St target ($30.22)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$18.52 -
$22.60
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$20.27
Resistance Level
$22.88
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.65
Wall Street Target
$30.22
(+37.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-39.4%
Profit Margin
-2.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.7 vs 10.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$20.56
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$19.20
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$17.93
(-19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→11)
$21.98
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 27.1%)
$116.73
(+430%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.6, Growth: 27.1%)
$45.17
(+105%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.4, Growth: 27.1%)
$38.39
(+74%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.6 to 10.6
Stabilization Target:
$26.98
(+22.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+22.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 3:02 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:02 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:02 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BWIN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Elizabeth Krystyn
SELL
119987 shares
2026-03-06
Paul Eugene Sparks
BUY
15200 shares
2026-03-03
Paul Eugene Sparks
BUY
29000 shares
2026-03-02
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