BWIN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BWIN - The Baldwin Insurance Group, Inc. Class A Common Stock
$21.92
-0.91 (-3.99%)
▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 24, 2026
23d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: BWIN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: BWIN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$46.76
Based on 13.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$29.03
24.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BWIN is currently trading at $21.92, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.28 to $26.28. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.3) compared to its historical average (12.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BWIN is showing support break momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $21.86. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: BWIN has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $33.38 (+46.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BWIN is showing support break momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $21.86. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: BWIN has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $33.38 (+46.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$24.28 -
$26.28
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding BWIN? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading 46.2% below Wall St target ($33.38)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-12.8%) - monitor closely
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$24.28 -
$26.28
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$21.86
Resistance Level
$26.82
Current Trend
Support Break
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.27
Wall Street Target
$33.38
(+46.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-39.4%
Profit Margin
-1.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.3 vs 12.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$22.01
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$21.22
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$20.45
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→13)
$22.87
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 22.1%)
$82.33
(+261%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.3, Growth: 22.1%)
$41.60
(+82%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.6, Growth: 22.1%)
$35.36
(+55%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.3 to 12.6
Stabilization Target:
$25.53
(+11.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.8%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 12:09 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:09 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:09 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BWIN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Josh Gottheimer
SELL
2025-09-23
Bradford Hale
BUY
10000 shares
2025-08-07
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Advanced BWIN Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's BWIN price and gamma walls.
