BWXT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BWXT - BWX Technologies, Inc.
$205.43
-4.75 (-2.26%)
▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 23, 2026
22d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: BWXT is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.8% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: BWXT is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.8% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$158.99
Based on 8.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$98.72
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BWXT is currently trading at $205.43, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $181.00 to $211.06. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 48.9) compared to its historical average (43.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BWXT is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $202.50. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BWXT is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $202.50. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$181.00 -
$211.06
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
47.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding BWXT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($224.44)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$181.00 -
$211.06
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$202.50
Resistance Level
$220.57
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
48.92
Wall Street Target
$224.44
(+6.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
28.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
17.3%
Profit Margin
10.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.8% premium
PE vs Historical
48.9 vs 43.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$218.17
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$226.46
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$235.06
(+12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 49→44)
PE COMPRESSION
$209.98
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 48.9, Growth: 12.4%)
$298.40
(+42%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 12.4%)
$136.02
(-35%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 12.4%)
$115.62
(-45%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (65x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (49x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 64.95 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.33
Bull Case
$306.98
(+49%)
Analyst growth 29.0%, PE expands to 71.5
Base Case
$279.07
(+36%)
Market implied 29.0%, PE stable at 65.0
Bear Case
$147.08
(-28%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 55.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 5:49 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:49 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:49 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BWXT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Leland D Melvin
SELL
600 shares
2025-08-11
Ronald Owen Whitford Jr
SELL
2092 shares
2025-08-11
Omar Fathi Meguid
SELL
2261 shares
2025-08-06
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