CAKE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CAKE - Cheesecake Factory (The)
$57.96
-0.55 (-0.93%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 18, 2026
18d
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1 traders called CAKE this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CAKE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.1% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CAKE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.1% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$70.21
Based on 5.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$43.59
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CAKE is currently trading at $57.96, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $52.75 to $59.58. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.6) is in line with its historical norms (13.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CAKE is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $56.29. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CAKE is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $56.29. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$52.75 -
$59.58
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($60.17)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$52.75 -
$59.58
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$3.27
(5.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$56.29
Resistance Level
$61.58
Current Trend
Sideways
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.55
Wall Street Target
$60.17
(+2.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
8.2%
Profit Margin
4.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.1% premium
PE vs Historical
14.6 vs 13.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$60.32
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$62.19
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$64.12
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$58.61
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 7.2%)
$110.43
(+89%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.5, Growth: 7.2%)
$72.05
(+23%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.4, Growth: 7.2%)
$61.24
(+5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.35 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.29
Bull Case
$76.61
(+31%)
Analyst growth 22.0%, PE expands to 19.1
Base Case
$69.64
(+19%)
Market implied 22.0%, PE stable at 17.4
Bear Case
$38.81
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:43 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:43 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:43 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CAKE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
David M Gordon
SELL
43335 shares
2025-08-14
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Advanced CAKE Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CAKE price and gamma walls.
