CMG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CMG - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
$37.06
0.35 (0.95%)
▲
5d:
-2.6%
30d:
-5.39%
90d:
+8.55%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 5, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 22, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
CMG is up 3.4% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $37 2026-03-27 with 528 OI. Put ratio: 65% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.2/10
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1 traders called CMG this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CMG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: CMG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$59.86
Based on 12.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$37.17
0.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CMG is currently trading at $37.06, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $36.83 to $39.20. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 26.8) compared to its historical average (29.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 4.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMG is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $35.46, while resistance sits at $38.34.
Market Sentiment: CMG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $44.32 (+20.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMG is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $35.46, while resistance sits at $38.34.
Market Sentiment: CMG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $44.32 (+20.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$36.83 -
$39.20
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding CMG? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 20.7% below Wall St target ($44.32)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$36.83 -
$39.20
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$35.46
Resistance Level
$38.34
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 5, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
26.79
Wall Street Target
$44.32
(+20.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
4.0%
Profit Margin
12.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
26.8 vs 29.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$35.39
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$34.11
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$32.89
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 27→30)
$36.70
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 26.8, Growth: 19.9%)
$63.24
(+72%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.6, Growth: 19.9%)
$53.32
(+45%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.2, Growth: 19.9%)
$45.33
(+24%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (33x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (27x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 32.80 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.16
Bull Case
$49.44
(+33%)
Analyst growth 18.1%, PE expands to 36.1
Base Case
$44.95
(+21%)
Market implied 18.1%, PE stable at 32.8
Bear Case
$25.87
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 26.8 to 29.9
Stabilization Target:
$40.97
(+11.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 06, 2026 6:10 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:10 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:10 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CMG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
5
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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BUY
2026-01-29
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BUY
2025-11-18
Ro Khanna
SELL
2025-11-10
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Advanced CMG Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CMG price and gamma walls.
