CMG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CMG - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
$33.57
0.92 (2.82%)
▲
5d:
+5.17%
30d:
-6.31%
90d:
-11.38%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 10.0/10
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6 traders called CMG this week
92% bullish • 1 bearish
92% bullish • 1 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CMG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: CMG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$59.20
Based on 11.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$36.76
8.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CMG is currently trading at $33.57, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $32.46 to $34.88. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 24.0) compared to its historical average (27.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMG is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $33.62. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CMG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.50 (+33.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMG is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $33.62. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CMG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.50 (+33.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$32.46 -
$34.88
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding CMG? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 33.2% below Wall St target ($43.50)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$32.46 -
$34.88
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$31.63
Resistance Level
$33.62
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.04
Wall Street Target
$43.50
(+33.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-17.9%
Profit Margin
12.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
24.0 vs 27.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$31.21
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$29.84
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$28.53
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24→28)
$32.63
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.0, Growth: 19.8%)
$56.11
(+72%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.1, Growth: 19.8%)
$51.51
(+58%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.8, Growth: 19.8%)
$43.79
(+34%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (29x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (24x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 29.44 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.09
Bull Case
$43.98
(+35%)
Analyst growth 24.6%, PE expands to 32.4
Base Case
$39.99
(+23%)
Market implied 24.6%, PE stable at 29.4
Bear Case
$21.82
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 24.0 to 27.5
Stabilization Target:
$37.35
(+14.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 10:32 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:32 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:32 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CMG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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SELL
2026-03-23
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2026-03-10
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CMG price and gamma walls.
