CAPL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CAPL - CrossAmerica Partners LP Common units representing limited partner interests
$22.55
-0.22 (-0.97%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 25, 2026
24d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CAPL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 9.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CAPL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 9.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$2.19
Based on -23.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$1.36
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CAPL is currently trading at $22.55, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $20.70 to $22.28. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 56.9) compared to its historical average (75.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 27.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CAPL is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $22.92. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CAPL has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (3th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $20.00. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CAPL is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $22.92. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CAPL has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (3th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $20.00. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$20.70 -
$22.28
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
3th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 3th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 12.2% above Wall St target ($20.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$20.70 -
$22.28
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.71
(3.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$21.54
Resistance Level
$22.92
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
56.92
Wall Street Target
$20.00
(-12.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-10.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
27.1%
Profit Margin
1.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
56.9 vs 75.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$20.72
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$18.86
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$17.16
(-25%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 57→76)
$22.79
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 56.9, Growth: -51.2%)
$16.60
(+-27%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: -51.2%)
$6.50
(-71%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: -51.2%)
$5.53
(-76%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 18.96 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.19
Bull Case
$12.41
(-45%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 20.9
Base Case
$11.28
(-50%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 19.0
Bear Case
$15.34
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 56.9 to 75.6
Stabilization Target:
$30.24
(+32.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+32.8%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 9:42 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:42 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:42 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CAPL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
John B Reilly III
BUY
1871 shares
2025-10-10
Joseph V Jr. Topper
BUY
1801 shares
2025-10-10
John B Reilly III
BUY
2706 shares
2025-08-12
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Advanced CAPL Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CAPL price and gamma walls.
