CASY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CASY - Casey's General Stores Inc
$606.50
-4.82 (-0.79%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 10, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CASY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CASY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$685.85
Based on 7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$425.86
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CASY is currently trading at $606.50, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $567.60 to $622.95. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 31.9) is in line with its historical norms (33.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 14.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CASY is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $601.69. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (16th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CASY is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $601.69. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (16th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$567.60 -
$622.95
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
16th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 16th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($641.53)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$567.60 -
$622.95
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$26.45
(4.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$601.69
Resistance Level
$647.99
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
31.88
Wall Street Target
$641.53
(+4.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
14.0%
Profit Margin
3.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
31.9 vs 33.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$600.93
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$590.71
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$580.67
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 32→34)
$612.09
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 31.9, Growth: 10.9%)
$834.12
(+36%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 10.9%)
$583.56
(-5%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 10.9%)
$496.02
(-19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (38x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (32x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 37.89 | Current EPS (TTM): $16.24
Bull Case
$799.29
(+32%)
Analyst growth 18.1%, PE expands to 41.7
Base Case
$726.63
(+20%)
Market implied 18.1%, PE stable at 37.9
Bear Case
$418.40
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 32.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 31.9 to 33.6
Stabilization Target:
$644.40
(+5.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.4%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 9:42 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:42 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:42 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is CASY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Chad Michael Frazell
SELL
3487 shares
2025-09-29
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Advanced CASY Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CASY price and gamma walls.
