CAT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CAT - Caterpillar Inc.
$657.36
-7.88 (-1.18%)
▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 28, 2026
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5 traders called CAT this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CAT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: CAT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$999.85
Based on 12.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$620.83
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CAT is currently trading at $657.36, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $591.21 to $646.60. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 29.5) compared to its historical average (26.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CAT is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $619.26, while resistance sits at $679.99.
Market Sentiment: CAT has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CAT is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $619.26, while resistance sits at $679.99.
Market Sentiment: CAT has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$591.21 -
$646.60
Company Quality Score
70/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding CAT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($625.99)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.6% growth with 9.5% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$591.21 -
$646.60
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$619.26
Resistance Level
$679.99
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
29.51
Wall Street Target
$625.99
(-5.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-3.6%
Profit Margin
14.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.6% premium
PE vs Historical
29.5 vs 26.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$689.19
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$714.00
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$739.70
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 30→27)
PE COMPRESSION
$666.85
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 29.5, Growth: 20.6%)
$1165.72
(+75%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 20.6%)
$881.02
(+32%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 20.6%)
$748.87
(+13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (33x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (30x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 33.01 | Current EPS (TTM): $19.49
Bull Case
$818.56
(+25%)
Analyst growth 15.7%, PE expands to 36.3
Base Case
$744.14
(+13%)
Market implied 15.7%, PE stable at 33.0
Bear Case
$437.43
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 28.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 9:43 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:43 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:43 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CAT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Donald J Umpleby III
SELL
17166 shares
2025-10-10
Donald J Umpleby III
SELL
17166 shares
2025-09-22
Donald J Umpleby III
SELL
17168 shares
2025-09-02
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CAT price and gamma walls.
