CBSH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CBSH - Commerce Bancshares Inc
$50.95
-0.09 (-0.18%)
▼
5d:
-1.81%
30d:
+0.99%
90d:
-4.94%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 21, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CBSH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CBSH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$66.81
Based on 4.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$41.49
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CBSH is currently trading at $50.95, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $50.46 to $51.83. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.6) is in line with its historical norms (12.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 3.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CBSH is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $50.05. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $58.69 (+15.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CBSH is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $50.05. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $58.69 (+15.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$50.46 -
$51.83
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($58.69)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$50.46 -
$51.83
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$50.05
Resistance Level
$53.09
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.62
Wall Street Target
$58.69
(+15.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
3.1%
Profit Margin
32.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.6 vs 12.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$50.39
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$49.84
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$49.29
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
$50.89
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 5.8%)
$114.73
(+125%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.6, Growth: 5.8%)
$60.42
(+19%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.9, Growth: 5.8%)
$51.35
(+1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.54 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.07
Bull Case
$60.47
(+19%)
Analyst growth 7.7%, PE expands to 13.8
Base Case
$54.98
(+8%)
Market implied 7.7%, PE stable at 12.5
Bear Case
$34.71
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.6 to 12.0
Stabilization Target:
$52.61
(+3.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 16, 2026 2:53 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:53 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:53 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CBSH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Timothy S Dunn
BUY
2500 shares
2026-03-13
Kim L Jakovich
SELL
949 shares
2026-03-05
Margaret M Rowe
SELL
861 shares
2026-03-05
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