CDNS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

CDNS - Cadence Design Systems

SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE
$296.36
-6.31 (-2.08%) ▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
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Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 17, 2026 16d

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CDNS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$74.62
Based on -10.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$46.33
Trading above fair value

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: CDNS is currently trading at $296.36, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $308.72 to $322.72. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 57.0) is in line with its historical norms (59.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 20.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, CDNS is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $293.44. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: CDNS has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $381.32 (+26.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range $308.72 - $322.72
Company Quality Score 59/100 (HOLD)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 57.1%

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All Signals

  • BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
  • BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BULLISH: Trading 26.0% below Wall St target ($381.32)
  • CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-6.9%) - monitor closely

Fair Price Analysis

30-Day Fair Range $308.72 - $322.72
Current vs Fair Value OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $293.44
Resistance Level $325.19
Current Trend Strong Downtrend

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 57.02
Wall Street Target $381.32 (+26.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 10.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY) 20.7%
Profit Margin 20.3%
Valuation Discount vs History -1.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical 57.0 vs 59.2 FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): -1.3% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $298.74 (-1%)
2-Year Target $294.85 (-3%)
3-Year Target $291.02 (-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 57→59) $302.13 (0%)
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 57.0, Growth: -24.6%) $220.65 (+-27%)
Base: (SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: -24.6%) $86.29 (-72%)
Bear: (PE: 19.0, Growth: -24.6%) $73.34 (-76%)
📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 40.16 | Forward EPS (Implied): $7.38
Bull Case $357.85 (+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 42.2
Base Case $296.36 (0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 40.2
Bear Case $226.72 (-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 36.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡 Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 57.0 to 59.2
Stabilization Target: $314.22 (+3.8%)
PE Expansion Potential: +3.8%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 10:05 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:05 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
Ticker Score Recommendation Change %
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Paul Cunningham SELL 1000 shares 2025-10-01
John M Wall SELL 7500 shares 2025-09-30
Val T. Hoyle SELL 2025-09-23

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Advanced CDNS Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CDNS price and gamma walls.

Iron Condor Bull Call Bear Put Collar

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