CF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CF - CF Industries Holding, Inc.
$93.23
-0.80 (-0.85%)
▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 18, 2026
16d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CF is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: CF is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$58.52
Based on -6.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$36.33
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CF is currently trading at $93.23, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $78.11 to $90.19. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 12.8) compared to its historical average (11.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CF is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $95.21. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CF has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CF is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $95.21. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CF has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$78.11 -
$90.19
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding CF? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($91.61)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$78.11 -
$90.19
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$84.71
Resistance Level
$95.21
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.85
Wall Street Target
$91.61
(-1.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
41.6%
Profit Margin
20.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.6% premium
PE vs Historical
12.9 vs 11.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$96.59
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$100.06
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$103.67
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$92.77
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -17.1%)
$117.94
(+27%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.9, Growth: -17.1%)
$67.96
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.9, Growth: -17.1%)
$57.77
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 11.27 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.27
Bull Case
$89.91
(-4%)
Analyst growth -12.3%, PE expands to 12.4
Base Case
$81.73
(-12%)
Market implied -12.3%, PE stable at 11.3
Bear Case
$63.36
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 11:17 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:17 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:17 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2025-09-05
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CF price and gamma walls.
