CFR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CFR - Cullen/Frost Bankers Inc.
$154.86
-0.89 (-0.57%)
▼
5d:
+0.89%
30d:
+14.25%
90d:
+11.69%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
25d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CFR is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: CFR is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$177.06
Based on 3.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$109.94
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CFR is currently trading at $154.86, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $137.86 to $152.09. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.0) is in line with its historical norms (13.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CFR is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $157.34. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CFR has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CFR is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $157.34. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CFR has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$137.86 -
$152.09
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($153.57)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$137.86 -
$152.09
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$145.26
Resistance Level
$157.34
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.98
Wall Street Target
$153.57
(-0.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
15.2%
Profit Margin
30.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.0% premium
PE vs Historical
14.0 vs 13.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$157.96
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$161.12
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$164.34
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$155.18
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 3.8%)
$269.78
(+74%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.0, Growth: 3.8%)
$173.15
(+12%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.9, Growth: 3.8%)
$147.18
(-5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.18 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.26
Bull Case
$184.99
(+20%)
Analyst growth 8.0%, PE expands to 16.7
Base Case
$168.17
(+9%)
Market implied 8.0%, PE stable at 15.2
Bear Case
$105.91
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 3:44 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:44 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:44 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CFR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Bobby Berman
SELL
1000 shares
2026-01-30
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