CGAU Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CGAU - Centerra Gold Inc.
$16.97
0.21 (1.25%)
▲
5d:
-10.35%
30d:
+18.09%
90d:
+43.81%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: February 2, 2026
Earnings: Feb 19, 2026
15d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: CGAU is down 10.4% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: CGAU is down 10.4% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$32.72
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$20.31
16.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CGAU is currently trading at $16.97, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.77 to $18.27. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.1) is in line with its historical norms (10.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CGAU is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $16.46, while resistance sits at $20.40.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CGAU is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $16.46, while resistance sits at $20.40.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$14.77 -
$18.27
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
66.2%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($15.75)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -10.4% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$14.77 -
$18.27
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$16.46
Resistance Level
$20.40
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.10
Wall Street Target
$15.75
(-7.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
22.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
990.6%
Profit Margin
26.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.3% premium
PE vs Historical
10.1 vs 10.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.02
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$17.07
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$17.12
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$16.95
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 61.8%)
$126.44
(+645%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.1, Growth: 61.8%)
$57.27
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.6, Growth: 61.8%)
$48.68
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.14 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.38
Bull Case
$22.44
(+32%)
Analyst growth 21.7%, PE expands to 13.4
Base Case
$20.40
(+20%)
Market implied 21.7%, PE stable at 12.1
Bear Case
$11.40
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: February 03, 2026 4:53 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:53 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:53 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CGAU showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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