CGBD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CGBD - Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. Common Stock
$12.25
-0.08 (-0.65%)
▼
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 24, 2026
22d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CGBD shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CGBD shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$12.85
Based on 0.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.98
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CGBD is currently trading at $12.25, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.44 to $12.81. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.3) is in line with its historical norms (8.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CGBD is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $12.13. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CGBD is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $12.13. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$12.44 -
$12.81
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.6%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($13.36)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$12.44 -
$12.81
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.35
(2.8%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.13
Resistance Level
$12.99
Current Trend
Sideways
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.27
Wall Street Target
$13.36
(+9.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-5.6%
Profit Margin
30.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.3 vs 8.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.16
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$12.08
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$11.99
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$12.32
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -3.1%)
$30.01
(+145%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.3, Growth: -3.1%)
$11.13
(-9%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.0, Growth: -3.1%)
$9.46
(-23%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.67 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.16
Bull Case
$17.38
(+42%)
Analyst growth 27.6%, PE expands to 11.7
Base Case
$15.80
(+29%)
Market implied 27.6%, PE stable at 10.7
Bear Case
$8.42
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.3 to 8.5
Stabilization Target:
$12.58
(+2.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.7%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 9:57 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:57 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:57 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is CGBD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Thomas M Hennigan
BUY
7285 shares
2025-08-20
John G Nestor
SELL
13238 shares
2025-08-18
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Advanced CGBD Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CGBD price and gamma walls.
