CHA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CHA - Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares
$10.09
0.93 (10.15%)
▲
5d:
+2.13%
30d:
-4.63%
90d:
-13.24%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Mar 31, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CHA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CHA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$14.87
Based on 5.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.23
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 0.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CHA is currently trading at $10.09, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.95 to $11.08. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 0.7) compared to its historical average (0.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHA is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $8.98, while resistance sits at $11.09. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 10.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: CHA has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.08 (+168.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHA is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $8.98, while resistance sits at $11.09. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 10.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: CHA has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.08 (+168.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$9.95 -
$11.08
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+10.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading 168.4% below Wall St target ($27.08)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$9.95 -
$11.08
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.98
Resistance Level
$11.09
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.71
Wall Street Target
$27.08
(+168.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-89.9%
Profit Margin
15.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
0.7 vs 0.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.79
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$9.49
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$9.21
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1→1)
$10.41
(+3%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 6.9%)
$358.06
(+3449%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.7, Growth: 6.9%)
$12.32
(+22%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.6, Growth: 6.9%)
$10.47
(+4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.48 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.75
Bull Case
$32.14
(+216%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 21.4
Base Case
$29.22
(+188%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 19.5
Bear Case
$9.93
(-2%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 0.7 to 0.8
Stabilization Target:
$11.41
(+13.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 05, 2026 4:46 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:46 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:46 PM
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Is CHA showing a specific setup today?
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