CHA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CHA - Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares
$11.72
-0.34 (-2.82%)
▼
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 27, 2026
25d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CHA shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CHA shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$16.73
Based on 5.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.39
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 0.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CHA is currently trading at $11.72, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.82 to $12.71. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 0.8) is in line with its historical norms (0.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHA is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.69. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.08 (+131.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHA is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.69. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.08 (+131.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$11.82 -
$12.71
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 131.1% below Wall St target ($27.08)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$11.82 -
$12.71
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.69
Resistance Level
$12.53
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.82
Wall Street Target
$27.08
(+131.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-89.9%
Profit Margin
15.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
0.8 vs 0.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.51
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$11.30
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$11.10
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1→1)
$12.15
(+4%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 6.9%)
$388.17
(+3212%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.8, Growth: 6.9%)
$14.31
(+22%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.7, Growth: 6.9%)
$12.16
(+4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.48 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.75
Bull Case
$32.14
(+174%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 21.4
Base Case
$29.22
(+149%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 19.5
Bear Case
$9.93
(-15%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 0.8 to 0.9
Stabilization Target:
$12.83
(+9.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.5%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 9:18 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:18 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:18 PM
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