CHEF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CHEF - The Chef's Warehouse Inc
$58.87
-0.65 (-1.09%)
▼
5d:
+1.22%
30d:
-17.54%
90d:
-7.34%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
28d
Smart Money Distribution
CHEF is up 3.3% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $50 2026-04-17 with 406 OI. Put ratio: 96% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CHEF shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CHEF shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$98.42
Based on 9.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$61.11
3.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CHEF is currently trading at $58.87, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $59.60 to $68.54. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 23.7) compared to its historical average (28.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHEF is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $57.44. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CHEF has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (28th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $77.12 (+31.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHEF is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $57.44. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CHEF has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (28th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $77.12 (+31.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$59.60 -
$68.54
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
28th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 28th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 31.0% below Wall St target ($77.12)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$59.60 -
$68.54
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$3.75
(6.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$57.44
Resistance Level
$64.75
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.73
Wall Street Target
$77.13
(+31.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-9.6%
Profit Margin
1.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
23.7 vs 28.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$55.51
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$52.35
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$49.37
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24→28)
$58.88
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.7, Growth: 15.5%)
$90.80
(+54%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 15.5%)
$85.53
(+45%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 15.5%)
$72.70
(+24%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (35x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (24x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 34.55 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.68
Bull Case
$94.28
(+62%)
Analyst growth 47.7%, PE expands to 38.0
Base Case
$85.71
(+47%)
Market implied 47.7%, PE stable at 34.6
Bear Case
$39.47
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 29.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 23.7 to 28.3
Stabilization Target:
$70.21
(+19.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+19.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 9:40 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:40 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:40 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CHEF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Christopher Pappas
SELL
95908 shares
2026-03-03
Christina Polychroni
SELL
3317 shares
2026-03-02
Alexandros Aldous
SELL
29500 shares
2026-02-27
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