CMC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CMC - Commercial Metals Company
$76.87
-1.09 (-1.40%)
▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 19, 2026
Get Alerted When CMC Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CMC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: CMC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$90.85
Based on 1.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$56.41
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CMC is currently trading at $76.87, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $71.03 to $76.40. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.9) is in line with its historical norms (11.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 51.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $73.00, while resistance sits at $79.61.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $73.00, while resistance sits at $79.61.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$71.03 -
$76.40
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
46.2%
Protect Your Profits
Holding CMC? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($80.30)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$71.03 -
$76.40
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$73.00
Resistance Level
$79.61
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.87
Wall Street Target
$80.30
(+3.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
51.3%
Profit Margin
5.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.9 vs 11.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$75.86
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$73.81
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$71.81
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→12)
$77.94
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -1.1%)
$154.49
(+98%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.9, Growth: -1.1%)
$75.32
(-3%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.2, Growth: -1.1%)
$64.03
(-18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.44 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.86
Bull Case
$153.35
(+100%)
Analyst growth 85.8%, PE expands to 21.4
Base Case
$139.41
(+81%)
Market implied 85.8%, PE stable at 19.4
Bear Case
$51.03
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.9 to 11.8
Stabilization Target:
$84.61
(+8.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.5%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 7:40 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:40 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:40 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is CMC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
John R Mcpherson
BUY
1722 shares
2025-10-20
Top Rated Steel Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Steel by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
STLD
Steel Dynamics Inc |
STRONG BUY
14 analysts |
$191 | 63 BUY |
|
NUE
Nucor Corp |
BUY
15 analysts |
$182 | 60 HOLD |
|
TX
Ternium SA ADR |
BUY
13 analysts |
$40 | 57 HOLD |
|
MT
ArcelorMittal SA ADR |
BUY
6 analysts |
$50 | 66 BUY |
|
CLF
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc |
HOLD
12 analysts |
$13 | 58 HOLD |
Advanced CMC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CMC price and gamma walls.
