CMC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CMC - Commercial Metals Company
$62.87
1.44 (2.34%)
▲
5d:
+0.74%
30d:
-12.2%
90d:
-10.06%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Mar 26, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CMC appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -6.3% annual earnings decline despite 277% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CMC appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -6.3% annual earnings decline despite 277% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$112.94
Based on 8.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$70.13
10.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CMC is currently trading at $62.87, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $60.24 to $71.23. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.9) compared to its historical average (10.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 277.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMC is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $57.56, while resistance sits at $65.46.
Market Sentiment: CMC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $80.90 (+28.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMC is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $57.56, while resistance sits at $65.46.
Market Sentiment: CMC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $80.90 (+28.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$60.24 -
$71.23
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 28.7% below Wall St target ($80.90)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$60.24 -
$71.23
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$57.56
Resistance Level
$65.46
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.86
Wall Street Target
$80.90
(+28.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
277.3%
Profit Margin
6.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.9 vs 10.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$58.91
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$55.20
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$51.72
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→11)
$63.05
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 12.2%)
$223.82
(+256%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.9, Growth: 12.2%)
$88.71
(+41%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.5, Growth: 12.2%)
$75.41
(+20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.59 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.86
Bull Case
$125.32
(+103%)
Analyst growth 89.3%, PE expands to 17.2
Base Case
$113.92
(+84%)
Market implied 89.3%, PE stable at 15.6
Bear Case
$40.92
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.9 to 10.8
Stabilization Target:
$76.65
(+21.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+21.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 4:17 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:17 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:17 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CMC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
1
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jennifer J Durbin
SELL
25050 shares
2026-02-03
Dennis V Arriola
BUY
2000 shares
2026-01-20
John R Mcpherson
BUY
1722 shares
2025-10-20
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