CMC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CMC - Commercial Metals Company
$60.09
1.81 (3.11%)
▲
5d:
-2.89%
30d:
-18.02%
90d:
-15.65%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Mar 26, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CMC appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -7.9% annual earnings decline despite 277% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CMC appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -7.9% annual earnings decline despite 277% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$110.40
Based on 7.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$68.55
12.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CMC is currently trading at $60.09, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $60.69 to $72.94. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.5) compared to its historical average (10.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 277.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMC is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $57.56, while resistance sits at $65.46. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $80.90 (+34.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMC is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $57.56, while resistance sits at $65.46. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $80.90 (+34.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$60.69 -
$72.94
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 34.6% below Wall St target ($80.90)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$60.69 -
$72.94
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$57.56
Resistance Level
$65.46
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.47
Wall Street Target
$80.90
(+34.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
277.3%
Profit Margin
6.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.5 vs 10.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$55.34
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$50.97
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$46.94
(-22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→11)
$59.88
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 11.2%)
$218.19
(+263%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.5, Growth: 11.2%)
$82.66
(+38%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.2, Growth: 11.2%)
$70.26
(+17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.59 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.86
Bull Case
$125.32
(+103%)
Analyst growth 89.3%, PE expands to 17.2
Base Case
$113.92
(+84%)
Market implied 89.3%, PE stable at 15.6
Bear Case
$40.92
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.5 to 10.8
Stabilization Target:
$76.65
(+27.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+27.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 5:57 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:57 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:57 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CMC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
1
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jennifer J Durbin
SELL
25050 shares
2026-02-03
Dennis V Arriola
BUY
2000 shares
2026-01-20
John R Mcpherson
BUY
1722 shares
2025-10-20
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