CMCL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CMCL - Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc
$28.10
0.66 (2.41%)
▲
5d:
-10.99%
30d:
+7.37%
90d:
-3.0%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: February 2, 2026
Earnings: Mar 25, 2026
Get Alerted When CMCL Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: CMCL is down 11.0% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: CMCL is down 11.0% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$87.51
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$54.34
48.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CMCL is currently trading at $28.10, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $26.49 to $30.65. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.2) compared to its historical average (8.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 14.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 541.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMCL is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $27.05, while resistance sits at $32.89.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $46.25 (+64.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMCL is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $27.05, while resistance sits at $32.89.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $46.25 (+64.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$26.49 -
$30.65
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 64.6% below Wall St target ($46.25)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -11.0% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$26.49 -
$30.65
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$27.06
Resistance Level
$32.89
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.25
Wall Street Target
$46.25
(+64.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
52.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
541.7%
Profit Margin
22.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-14.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.3 vs 8.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-14.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$25.29
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$22.76
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$20.48
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→8)
$32.76
(+17%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 59.7%)
$402.65
(+1333%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.3, Growth: 59.7%)
$94.84
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.5, Growth: 59.7%)
$80.61
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (5x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.63 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.56
Bull Case
$71.13
(+159%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 13.9
Base Case
$64.66
(+136%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 12.6
Bear Case
$21.98
(-20%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.3 to 8.4
Stabilization Target:
$44.94
(+59.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+59.9%
Last updated: February 02, 2026 4:13 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:13 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:13 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is CMCL showing a specific setup today?
Top Rated Gold Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Gold by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
AEM
Agnico Eagle Mines Limit… |
STRONG BUY
20 analysts |
$222 | 57 HOLD |
|
WPM
Wheaton Precious Metals … |
STRONG BUY
15 analysts |
$158 | 56 HOLD |
|
B
Barrick Mining Corporati… |
BUY
22 analysts |
$45 | 41 HOLD |
|
NEM
Newmont Goldcorp Corp |
BUY
20 analysts |
$126 | 49 HOLD |
|
AGI
Alamos Gold Inc |
STRONG BUY
11 analysts |
$52 | 56 HOLD |
