CMG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CMG - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
$33.16
0.53 (1.62%)
▲
5d:
+3.08%
30d:
-9.67%
90d:
-10.38%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
26d
Smart Money Distribution
CMG is up 3.4% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $37 2026-03-27 with 528 OI. Put ratio: 65% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CMG trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.1% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CMG trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.1% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$58.66
Based on 11.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$36.42
9.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CMG is currently trading at $33.16, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $32.26 to $36.41. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 24.4) compared to its historical average (28.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 4.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMG is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $30.60, while resistance sits at $34.29.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $44.29 (+33.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMG is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $30.60, while resistance sits at $34.29.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $44.29 (+33.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$32.26 -
$36.41
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 33.6% below Wall St target ($44.29)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$32.26 -
$36.41
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$30.60
Resistance Level
$34.29
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.38
Wall Street Target
$44.29
(+33.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
4.0%
Profit Margin
12.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
24.4 vs 28.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$31.47
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$29.86
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$28.34
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24→29)
$33.25
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.4, Growth: 19.3%)
$56.34
(+70%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.6, Growth: 19.3%)
$47.54
(+43%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.5, Growth: 19.3%)
$40.41
(+22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (29x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (24x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 29.27 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.14
Bull Case
$44.04
(+32%)
Analyst growth 20.0%, PE expands to 32.2
Base Case
$40.04
(+20%)
Market implied 20.0%, PE stable at 29.3
Bear Case
$22.69
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 24.4 to 28.6
Stabilization Target:
$38.90
(+17.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 5:33 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:33 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:33 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CMG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
5
Buys
5
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
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BUY
2026-01-29
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BUY
2025-11-18
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SELL
2025-11-10
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Advanced CMG Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CMG price and gamma walls.
