CMG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CMG - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
$38.87
-0.23 (-0.59%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 03, 2026
1d
Smart Money Accumulation
CMG is down 4.9% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $50 2026-03-20 with 21,842 OI. Call ratio: 64% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.8/10
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4 traders called CMG this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CMG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.0% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CMG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.0% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$38.43
Based on 4.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.86
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CMG is currently trading at $38.87, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.83 to $40.20. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 31.9) is in line with its historical norms (31.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMG is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $38.43. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $45.12 (+16.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMG is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $38.43. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $45.12 (+16.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$37.83 -
$40.20
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($45.12)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$37.83 -
$40.20
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$38.43
Resistance Level
$41.42
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
31.88
Wall Street Target
$45.12
(+16.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
2.2%
Profit Margin
13.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.0% premium
PE vs Historical
31.9 vs 31.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$39.26
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$39.65
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$40.05
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 32→31)
PE COMPRESSION
$38.94
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 31.9, Growth: 5.5%)
$45.62
(+17%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 5.5%)
$31.91
(-18%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 5.5%)
$27.12
(-30%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (35x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (32x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 34.65 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.13
Bull Case
$46.45
(+20%)
Analyst growth 7.8%, PE expands to 38.1
Base Case
$42.23
(+9%)
Market implied 7.8%, PE stable at 34.7
Bear Case
$26.63
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 29.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: February 01, 2026 10:05 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:05 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:05 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CMG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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SELL
2025-09-29
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SELL
2025-09-12
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BUY
2025-09-05
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Advanced CMG Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CMG price and gamma walls.
