COLM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
COLM - Columbia Sportswear Co
$54.45
-0.14 (-0.26%)
▼
5d:
-0.71%
30d:
-9.61%
90d:
-1.16%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: COLM trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.9% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: COLM trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.9% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$96.52
Based on 8.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$59.93
9.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: COLM is currently trading at $54.45, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $54.15 to $59.62. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.2) compared to its historical average (17.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COLM is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $52.05, while resistance sits at $57.01.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $64.50 (+18.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COLM is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $52.05, while resistance sits at $57.01.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $64.50 (+18.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$54.15 -
$59.62
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($64.50)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$54.15 -
$59.62
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$52.05
Resistance Level
$57.01
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.25
Wall Street Target
$64.50
(+18.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-4.3%
Profit Margin
5.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.3 vs 17.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$51.24
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$48.21
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$45.37
(-17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→17)
$54.46
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 12.3%)
$111.48
(+105%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.2, Growth: 12.3%)
$77.21
(+42%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.1, Growth: 12.3%)
$65.63
(+21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.05 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.24
Bull Case
$71.67
(+30%)
Analyst growth 18.0%, PE expands to 18.8
Base Case
$65.15
(+18%)
Market implied 18.0%, PE stable at 17.1
Bear Case
$37.56
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.2 to 17.1
Stabilization Target:
$65.36
(+20.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+20.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 04, 2026 8:17 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:17 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:17 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is COLM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Peter J Bragdon
BUY
300 shares
2025-11-13
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