Is RL stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, RL is currently a HOLD with low confidence. 📊 HOLD: RL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of RL stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for RL to be between $346.80 and $380.88. The current price is $326.81.

What is the analyst price target for RL?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for RL is $414.26. This implies a potential upside of 26.8% from current levels.

RL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

RL - Ralph Lauren Corporation

MEN'S & BOYS' FURNISHGS, WORK CLOTHG, & ALLIED GARMENTS

$326.81

-7.24 (-2.17%) ▼

5d: -8.83%

30d: -11.6%

90d: -11.48%

HOLD

LOW Confidence

Protect Your RL Gains

Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: May 28, 2026 9d

Smart Money Accumulation

RL is down 8.8% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $350 2026-06-18 with 315 OI. Call ratio: 63% View Scanner →

Strength: 5.7/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: RL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 10.6%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$548.19

Based on 7.3% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$340.38

4.0% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.4x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: RL is currently trading at $326.81, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $346.80 to $380.88. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 18.1) compared to its historical average (21.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 24.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, RL is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $327.41. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $414.26 (+26.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Historical Trading Range $346.80 - $380.88

Company Quality Score 61/100 (BUY)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 83.5%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 26.8% below Wall St target ($414.26)
CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -8.8% 5-day decline

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $346.80 - $380.88

Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Expected Move (7 Days) ±$20.68 (6.3%)

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $327.41

Resistance Level $374.94

Current Trend Sideways

Technical data as of May 15, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 18.12

Wall Street Target $414.26 (+26.8%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 12.2%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 24.9%

Profit Margin 11.7%

Valuation Discount vs History -5.4% cheaper

PE vs Historical 18.1 vs 21.4 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -5.4% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $309.16 (-5%)

2-Year Target $292.47 (-11%)

3-Year Target $276.67 (-15%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 18→21) $326.68 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 22.1, Growth: 10.6%) $538.07 (+65%)

Base: (SPY PE: 18.1, Growth: 10.6%) $441.88 (+35%)

Bear: (PE: 15.4, Growth: 10.6%) $375.59 (+15%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 22.72 | Current EPS (TTM): $14.70

Bull Case $450.74 (+38%)

Analyst growth 22.7%, PE expands to 25.0

Base Case $409.76 (+25%)

Market implied 22.7%, PE stable at 22.7

Bear Case $227.15 (-31%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.3

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.1 to 21.4

Stabilization Target: $385.88 (+18.1%)

PE Expansion Potential: +18.1%

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Last updated: May 18, 2026 5:09 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:09 AM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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Recent Transactions

Patrice Louvet SELL 47000 shares 2026-02-10

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