COP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
COP - ConocoPhillips
$128.38
-3.62 (-2.74%)
▼
5d:
-0.43%
30d:
+8.32%
90d:
+36.43%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 30, 2026
27d
Smart Money Accumulation
COP is down 3.7% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $125 2026-04-17 with 5,697 OI. Call ratio: 68% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: COP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.4% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: COP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.4% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$176.04
Based on 8.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$109.31
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: COP is currently trading at $128.38, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $113.94 to $128.77. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.8) is in line with its historical norms (16.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.4% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COP is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $122.95, while resistance sits at $135.87.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COP is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $122.95, while resistance sits at $135.87.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$113.94 -
$128.77
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
63.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($129.75)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.4% growth with -6.8% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$113.94 -
$128.77
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$122.95
Resistance Level
$135.87
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.84
Wall Street Target
$129.75
(+1.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-6.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-39.0%
Profit Margin
13.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.4% premium
PE vs Historical
17.8 vs 16.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$131.46
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$134.62
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$137.85
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$128.28
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 12.2%)
$227.49
(+77%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.8, Growth: 12.2%)
$181.56
(+41%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.2, Growth: 12.2%)
$154.33
(+20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.99 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.35
Bull Case
$148.69
(+17%)
Analyst growth 6.5%, PE expands to 22.0
Base Case
$135.17
(+6%)
Market implied 6.5%, PE stable at 20.0
Bear Case
$86.31
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 6:05 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:05 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:05 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is COP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
14
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Heather G Hrap
SELL
2654 shares
2026-03-13
Andrew D Lundquist
SELL
34500 shares
2026-03-13
Nicholas G Olds
SELL
14522 shares
2026-03-12
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Advanced COP Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's COP price and gamma walls.
