COP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
COP - ConocoPhillips
$104.23
1.43 (1.39%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 05, 2026
3d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: COP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.8% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: COP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.8% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$59.81
Based on -6.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$37.14
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: COP is currently trading at $104.23, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $93.75 to $100.15. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 19.9) compared to its historical average (15.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 7.8% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COP is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $105.72. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: COP has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, COP is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $105.72. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: COP has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$93.75 -
$100.15
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($113.18)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 7.8% growth with 14.0% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$93.75 -
$100.15
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$94.98
Resistance Level
$105.72
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.86
Wall Street Target
$113.18
(+8.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-21.6%
Profit Margin
14.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+7.8% premium
PE vs Historical
19.9 vs 15.8
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+7.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$112.36
(+8%)
2-Year Target
$121.12
(+16%)
3-Year Target
$130.57
(+25%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$103.85
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -16.1%)
$85.30
(+-18%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: -16.1%)
$75.98
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.8, Growth: -16.1%)
$60.44
(-42%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 14.32 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.08
Bull Case
$82.65
(-21%)
Analyst growth -25.9%, PE expands to 15.8
Base Case
$75.14
(-28%)
Market implied -25.9%, PE stable at 14.3
Bear Case
$68.95
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: February 01, 2026 2:41 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:41 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:41 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is COP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Val T. Hoyle
SELL
2025-09-23
Michael T. McCaul
SELL
2025-08-21
Dan Newhouse
BUY
2025-08-18
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Advanced COP Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's COP price and gamma walls.
