CRNC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CRNC - Cerence Inc. Common Stock
$11.33
-0.43 (-3.66%)
▼
5d:
-0.26%
30d:
+5.0%
90d:
+1.25%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 04, 2026
1d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CRNC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CRNC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.50
Based on 5.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.49
1.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CRNC is currently trading at $11.33, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.11 to $12.24. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.7) compared to its historical average (16.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CRNC is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $10.80, while resistance sits at $12.60. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CRNC is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $10.80, while resistance sits at $12.60. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$11.11 -
$12.24
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
42th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 42th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.7%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($11.33)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$11.11 -
$12.24
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.69
(15.0%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.80
Resistance Level
$12.60
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.65
Wall Street Target
$11.33
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-10.1%
Profit Margin
-7.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.7 vs 16.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.56
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$9.84
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$9.17
(-19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→17)
$11.36
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 7.4%)
$22.96
(+103%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.7, Growth: 7.4%)
$14.05
(+24%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.6, Growth: 7.4%)
$11.95
(+5%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.7 to 16.9
Stabilization Target:
$14.03
(+23.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+23.8%
Last updated: February 02, 2026 5:03 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:03 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:03 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CRNC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Antonio Rodriquez
SELL
38347 shares
2025-10-06
Nils Schanz
SELL
30560 shares
2025-10-06
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Advanced CRNC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CRNC price and gamma walls.
