CTBI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CTBI - Community Trust Bancorp Inc
$72.75
-1.32 (-1.78%)
▼
5d:
+1.86%
30d:
+8.11%
90d:
+18.14%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 15, 2026
9d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CTBI is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: CTBI is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$76.95
Based on 3.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$47.78
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CTBI is currently trading at $72.75, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $67.05 to $71.60. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 11.6) compared to its historical average (10.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CTBI is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $71.28. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CTBI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CTBI is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $71.28. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CTBI has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$67.05 -
$71.60
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($73.67)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$67.05 -
$71.60
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$66.13
Resistance Level
$71.28
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 17, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.59
Wall Street Target
$73.67
(+1.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
23.0%
Profit Margin
37.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.5% premium
PE vs Historical
11.6 vs 10.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$75.30
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$77.93
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$80.66
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$73.07
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 2.3%)
$146.28
(+101%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.6, Growth: 2.3%)
$77.84
(+7%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.9, Growth: 2.3%)
$66.17
(-9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.97 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.71
Bull Case
$89.56
(+23%)
Analyst growth 9.9%, PE expands to 14.3
Base Case
$81.42
(+12%)
Market implied 9.9%, PE stable at 13.0
Bear Case
$50.37
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 05, 2026 3:30 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:30 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:30 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CTBI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Ricky D Sparkman
BUY
84 shares
2026-03-13
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