CTGO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CTGO - Contango ORE, Inc.
$28.35
-3.62 (-11.32%)
▼
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 16, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: CTGO is down 13.5% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: CTGO is down 13.5% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$26.02
Based on -3.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.16
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CTGO is currently trading at $28.35, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $27.00 to $31.56. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.1) compared to its historical average (6.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CTGO is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $27.68. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 11.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: CTGO has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (25th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $35.80 (+26.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CTGO is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $27.68. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 11.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: CTGO has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (25th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $35.80 (+26.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$27.00 -
$31.56
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
25th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
82.7%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 25th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-11.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 26.3% below Wall St target ($35.80)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -13.5% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$27.00 -
$31.56
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.67
(9.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$27.68
Resistance Level
$34.38
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.11
Wall Street Target
$35.80
(+26.3%)
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.1 vs 6.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$27.22
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$26.13
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$25.08
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→7)
$28.33
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -11.8%)
$75.43
(+166%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.1, Growth: -11.8%)
$20.67
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.2, Growth: -11.8%)
$17.57
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 17.04 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.66
Bull Case
$34.23
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 17.9
Base Case
$28.35
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 17.0
Bear Case
$21.69
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 15.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.1 to 6.9
Stabilization Target:
$32.02
(+12.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.9%
Last updated: February 01, 2026 4:50 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:50 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:50 PM
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