CVE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CVE - Cenovus Energy Inc.
$19.72
-0.67 (-3.29%)
▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 19, 2026
18d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CVE trades at premium valuation expecting 9.3% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: CVE trades at premium valuation expecting 9.3% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$6.61
Based on -14.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.10
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CVE is currently trading at $19.72, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.47 to $18.90. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 22.9) compared to its historical average (17.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 9.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVE is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $17.59, while resistance sits at $20.71. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: CVE has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVE is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $17.59, while resistance sits at $20.71. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: CVE has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$16.47 -
$18.90
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
49.0%
Protect Your Profits
Holding CVE? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.3%)
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($18.59)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 9.3% growth which is achievable
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$16.47 -
$18.90
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$17.60
Resistance Level
$20.72
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.90
Wall Street Target
$18.59
(-8.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-4.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
71.5%
Profit Margin
6.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+9.3% premium
PE vs Historical
22.9 vs 17.6
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+9.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$22.29
(+9%)
2-Year Target
$24.36
(+20%)
3-Year Target
$26.62
(+31%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→18)
PE COMPRESSION
$20.46
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.9, Growth: -33.6%)
$14.86
(+-27%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: -33.6%)
$14.47
(-29%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: -33.6%)
$11.42
(-44%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 15.60 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.27
Bull Case
$15.27
(-23%)
Analyst growth -29.9%, PE expands to 17.2
Base Case
$13.89
(-30%)
Market implied -29.9%, PE stable at 15.6
Bear Case
$13.47
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 7:36 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:36 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:36 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CVE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced CVE Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CVE price and gamma walls.
