PBR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PBR - PETROLEO BRASILEIRO S.A.-PETROBRAS ADS (REP 1 COMMON SHARE)
$16.11
0.12 (0.75%)
▲
5d:
-2.48%
30d:
-13.94%
90d:
-19.77%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 14, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PBR trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -12.7% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PBR trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -12.7% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$25.41
Based on 0.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.78
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PBR is currently trading at $16.11, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.52 to $18.56. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 3.9) compared to its historical average (5.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 12.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PBR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $17.63. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.19 (+44.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PBR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $17.63. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.19 (+44.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$16.52 -
$18.56
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 44.0% below Wall St target ($23.19)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$16.52 -
$18.56
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$17.63
Resistance Level
$19.20
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
3.92
Wall Street Target
$23.19
(+44.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-7.2%
Profit Margin
21.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-12.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
3.9 vs 5.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-12.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.50
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$13.05
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$11.74
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→6)
$17.69
(+10%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -2.1%)
$84.15
(+422%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 3.9, Growth: -2.1%)
$15.13
(-6%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.3, Growth: -2.1%)
$12.86
(-20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (5x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 5.09 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.14
Bull Case
$23.04
(+43%)
Analyst growth 31.0%, PE expands to 5.6
Base Case
$20.95
(+30%)
Market implied 31.0%, PE stable at 5.1
Bear Case
$10.87
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 3.9 to 5.9
Stabilization Target:
$24.27
(+50.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+50.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 6:58 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:58 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:58 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PBR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
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19 shares
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