PBR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PBR - PETROLEO BRASILEIRO S.A.-PETROBRAS ADS (REP 1 COMMON SHARE)
$20.43
0.50 (2.48%)
▲
5d:
-1.57%
30d:
-0.12%
90d:
+35.99%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 11, 2026
0d
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2 traders called PBR this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PBR trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.5% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PBR trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.5% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$47.40
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$29.43
30.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PBR is currently trading at $20.43, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $20.30 to $21.64. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.2) compared to its historical average (6.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PBR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $19.50, while resistance sits at $22.05.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.18 (+11.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PBR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $19.50, while resistance sits at $22.05.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.18 (+11.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$20.30 -
$21.64
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($22.18)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$20.30 -
$21.64
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$19.50
Resistance Level
$22.05
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.24
Wall Street Target
$22.18
(+11.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-7.2%
Profit Margin
21.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.2 vs 6.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$18.63
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$17.42
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$16.29
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→6)
$19.90
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 61.8%)
$283.29
(+1321%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.2, Growth: 61.8%)
$67.26
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.5, Growth: 61.8%)
$57.17
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (6x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (5x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 6.48 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.04
Bull Case
$27.12
(+36%)
Analyst growth 25.1%, PE expands to 7.1
Base Case
$24.66
(+24%)
Market implied 25.1%, PE stable at 6.5
Bear Case
$13.40
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.2 to 6.4
Stabilization Target:
$24.34
(+22.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+22.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 2:05 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:05 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:05 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PBR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Angelica Garcia Cobas La…
BUY
1000 shares
2026-04-02
Angelica Garcia Cobas La…
SELL
19 shares
2026-04-01
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