CVI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CVI - CVR ENERGY, INC.
$34.78
-0.05 (-0.14%)
▼
5d:
+7.18%
30d:
+43.96%
90d:
+33.67%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 27, 2026
27d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: CVI is 7.3% above fair value ($32.41). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: CVI is 7.3% above fair value ($32.41). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$7.02
Based on -20.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.36
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CVI is currently trading at $34.78, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $23.47 to $32.41. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 33.8) compared to its historical average (24.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 11.5% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVI is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $35.57. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CVI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $26.50. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVI is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $35.57. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CVI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $26.50. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$23.47 -
$32.41
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
51.0%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+7.3% above fair value)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 23.9% above Wall St target ($26.50)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 11.5% growth with -7.0% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$23.47 -
$32.41
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$28.91
Resistance Level
$35.57
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
33.84
Wall Street Target
$26.50
(-23.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-7.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-68.1%
Profit Margin
0.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+11.5% premium
PE vs Historical
33.8 vs 24.4
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+11.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$38.84
(+12%)
2-Year Target
$43.30
(+24%)
3-Year Target
$48.28
(+39%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 34→24)
PE COMPRESSION
$34.81
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 33.8, Growth: -45.1%)
$25.39
(+-27%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: -45.1%)
$16.81
(-52%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: -45.1%)
$14.29
(-59%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 32.47 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.00
Bull Case
$39.18
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 34.1
Base Case
$32.45
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 32.5
Bear Case
$24.82
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 29.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 1:57 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:57 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:57 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CVI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Carl C Icahn
BUY
275012 shares
2026-02-24
Carl C Icahn
BUY
244940 shares
2026-02-23
Carl C Icahn
BUY
263452 shares
2026-02-20
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