CVI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CVI - CVR ENERGY, INC.
$22.74
0.46 (2.06%)
▲
5d:
-7.33%
30d:
-10.15%
90d:
-41.96%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 17, 2026
14d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CVI trades at premium valuation expecting 7.9% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: CVI trades at premium valuation expecting 7.9% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$25.37
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.76
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CVI is currently trading at $22.74, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $22.97 to $26.03. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 26.6) compared to its historical average (21.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 7.9% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $21.80, while resistance sits at $25.81.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $25.83 (+13.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $21.80, while resistance sits at $25.81.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $25.83 (+13.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$22.97 -
$26.03
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
80.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($25.83)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 7.9% growth with 6.1% revenue growth
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -7.3% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$22.97 -
$26.03
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$21.80
Resistance Level
$25.81
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
26.62
Wall Street Target
$25.83
(+13.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-68.1%
Profit Margin
2.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+7.9% premium
PE vs Historical
26.6 vs 21.2
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+7.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$24.54
(+8%)
2-Year Target
$26.47
(+16%)
3-Year Target
$28.57
(+26%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 27→21)
PE COMPRESSION
$22.75
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 13.33 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.65
Bull Case
$12.52
(-45%)
Analyst growth -48.2%, PE expands to 14.7
Base Case
$11.38
(-50%)
Market implied -48.2%, PE stable at 13.3
Bear Case
$14.95
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: February 01, 2026 10:50 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:50 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:50 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CVI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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