CVLG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CVLG - Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.
$24.60
-1.25 (-4.84%)
▼
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 21, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CVLG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: CVLG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$44.27
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$27.49
10.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CVLG is currently trading at $24.60, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $23.03 to $26.20. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 12.8) compared to its historical average (11.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.3% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVLG is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $23.54, while resistance sits at $27.23. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (18th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $32.00 (+23.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVLG is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $23.54, while resistance sits at $27.23. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (18th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $32.00 (+23.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$23.03 -
$26.20
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
18th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
76.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding CVLG? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 18th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading 23.8% below Wall St target ($32.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 4.3% growth with 3.1% revenue growth
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -7.5% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$23.03 -
$26.20
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.79
(3.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$23.54
Resistance Level
$27.23
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.85
Wall Street Target
$32.00
(+23.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-25.3%
Profit Margin
2.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.3% premium
PE vs Historical
12.9 vs 11.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$26.96
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$28.12
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$29.33
(+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$25.80
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 29.7%)
$97.91
(+279%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.8, Growth: 29.7%)
$56.41
(+118%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.9, Growth: 29.7%)
$47.95
(+86%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.74 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.07
Bull Case
$52.54
(+114%)
Analyst growth 88.0%, PE expands to 26.1
Base Case
$47.76
(+94%)
Market implied 88.0%, PE stable at 23.7
Bear Case
$17.27
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 2:43 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:43 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:43 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CVLG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced CVLG Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CVLG price and gamma walls.
