CVLG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CVLG - Covenant Logistics Group, Inc.
$26.81
0.23 (0.87%)
▲
5d:
+2.06%
30d:
-8.93%
90d:
+19.53%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 22, 2026
22d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CVLG shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CVLG shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$54.33
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$33.73
20.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CVLG is currently trading at $26.81, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $25.46 to $28.93. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.9) is in line with its historical norms (11.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVLG is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $24.55, while resistance sits at $27.64.
Market Sentiment: CVLG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (2th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $31.67 (+18.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVLG is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $24.55, while resistance sits at $27.64.
Market Sentiment: CVLG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (2th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $31.67 (+18.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$25.46 -
$28.93
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
2th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 2th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($31.67)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$25.46 -
$28.93
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.15
(4.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$24.55
Resistance Level
$27.64
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.86
Wall Street Target
$31.67
(+18.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-25.3%
Profit Margin
0.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.9 vs 11.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$26.49
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$26.17
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$25.86
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→11)
$26.91
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 35.2%)
$136.41
(+409%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.9, Growth: 35.2%)
$66.28
(+147%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.2, Growth: 35.2%)
$56.34
(+110%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 14.88 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.77
Bull Case
$31.72
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 15.6
Base Case
$26.27
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 14.9
Bear Case
$20.10
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 13.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.9 to 11.3
Stabilization Target:
$27.90
(+4.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 5:56 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:56 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:56 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CVLG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
David Ray Parker
SELL
30400 shares
2026-02-20
David Ray Parker
SELL
55000 shares
2026-02-19
David Ray Parker
SELL
65000 shares
2026-02-18
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