CVNA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CVNA - Carvana Co.
$407.89
6.78 (1.69%)
▲
5d:
-13.89%
30d:
-3.35%
90d:
+33.7%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: February 2, 2026
Earnings: Feb 18, 2026
14d
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35 traders called CVNA this week
33% bullish • 36 bearish
33% bullish • 36 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: CVNA is down 13.9% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: CVNA is down 13.9% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$343.98
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$213.58
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CVNA is currently trading at $407.89, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $420.37 to $467.10. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 57.7) is in line with its historical norms (60.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 60.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVNA is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $374.55, while resistance sits at $486.89.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $483.55 (+18.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVNA is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $374.55, while resistance sits at $486.89.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $483.55 (+18.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$420.37 -
$467.10
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding CVNA? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($483.55)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -13.9% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$420.37 -
$467.10
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$374.55
Resistance Level
$486.89
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
57.73
Wall Street Target
$483.55
(+18.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
54.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
60.9%
Profit Margin
3.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
57.7 vs 60.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$401.36
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$394.94
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$388.62
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 58→61)
$407.94
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 57.7, Growth: 43.6%)
$1208.10
(+196%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 43.6%)
$466.67
(+14%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 43.6%)
$396.67
(-3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (63x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (58x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 63.29 | Forward EPS (Implied): $6.44
Bull Case
$492.53
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 66.5
Base Case
$407.89
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 63.3
Bear Case
$312.04
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 57.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 57.7 to 60.6
Stabilization Target:
$428.17
(+5.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.0%
Last updated: February 02, 2026 11:55 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:55 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:55 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CVNA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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2025-10-09
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SELL
10000 shares
2025-10-07
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2100 shares
2025-10-03
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