KMX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KMX - CarMax Inc.
$38.09
1.02 (2.75%)
▲
5d:
-4.56%
30d:
-5.97%
90d:
-7.01%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 19, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
KMX is up 6.0% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $35 2026-07-17 with 1,758 OI. Put ratio: 71% View Scanner →
Strength: 5.1/10
Get Alerted When KMX Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
1 traders called KMX this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: KMX shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: KMX shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.08
Based on -1.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.40
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KMX is currently trading at $38.09, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.45 to $43.25. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.2) is in line with its historical norms (15.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KMX is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $36.43, while resistance sits at $40.48.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $42.17 (+10.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KMX is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $36.43, while resistance sits at $40.48.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $42.17 (+10.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$37.45 -
$43.25
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($42.17)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$37.45 -
$43.25
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.43
Resistance Level
$40.48
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.21
Wall Street Target
$42.17
(+10.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-47.2%
Profit Margin
0.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.2 vs 15.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$37.98
(0%)
2-Year Target
$37.86
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$37.75
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→15)
$38.22
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: -6.5%)
$45.12
(+19%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.2, Growth: -6.5%)
$31.14
(-18%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.9, Growth: -6.5%)
$26.47
(-31%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.07 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.68
Bull Case
$60.78
(+60%)
Analyst growth 49.0%, PE expands to 24.3
Base Case
$55.25
(+45%)
Market implied 49.0%, PE stable at 22.1
Bear Case
$25.21
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.2 to 15.4
Stabilization Target:
$38.56
(+1.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 8:16 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:16 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:16 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is KMX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-01-29
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-01-22
Top Rated Auto & Truck Dealerships Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Auto & Truck Dealerships by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
MCW
Mister Car Wash, Inc. Co… |
STRONG BUY
17 analysts |
$7 | 63 BUY |
|
CVNA
Carvana Co |
BUY
23 analysts |
$93 | 49 HOLD |
|
LAD
Lithia Motors Inc |
STRONG BUY
16 analysts |
$372 | 52 HOLD |
|
ACVA
ACV Auctions Inc. |
STRONG BUY
14 analysts |
$9 | 54 HOLD |
|
CWH
Camping World Holdings I… |
STRONG BUY
12 analysts |
$14 | 53 HOLD |
Advanced KMX Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's KMX price and gamma walls.
