CWST Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CWST - Casella Waste Systems Inc
$87.18
5.64 (6.92%)
▲
5d:
+13.78%
30d:
-6.81%
90d:
-10.99%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
CWST is down 8.6% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $85 2026-05-15 with 9 OI. Call ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 9.3/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CWST appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -7.5% annual earnings decline despite 60% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CWST appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -7.5% annual earnings decline despite 60% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$66.02
Based on 11.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$40.99
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CWST is currently trading at $87.18, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $79.96 to $93.32. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 55.2) compared to its historical average (69.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 60.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CWST is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $87.59. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 6.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: CWST has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $113.50 (+30.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CWST is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $87.59. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 6.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: CWST has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $113.50 (+30.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$79.96 -
$93.32
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
88.1%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+6.9%)
- BULLISH: Trading 30.2% below Wall St target ($113.50)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$79.96 -
$93.32
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$74.05
Resistance Level
$87.60
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
55.23
Wall Street Target
$113.50
(+30.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
60.2%
Profit Margin
0.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
55.2 vs 69.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$80.64
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$74.59
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$69.00
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 55→70)
$87.20
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 55.2, Growth: 17.9%)
$142.86
(+64%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.6, Growth: 17.9%)
$53.21
(-39%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.5, Growth: 17.9%)
$45.22
(-48%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (89x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (55x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 88.50 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.88
Bull Case
$94.20
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 92.9
Base Case
$78.01
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 88.5
Bear Case
$59.68
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 79.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 55.2 to 69.8
Stabilization Target:
$110.17
(+26.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+26.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 5:18 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:18 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:18 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is CWST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
11
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Bradford John Helgeson
SELL
405 shares
2026-03-16
Edmond Coletta
SELL
988 shares
2026-03-16
John W Casella
SELL
1744 shares
2026-03-16
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Advanced CWST Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CWST price and gamma walls.
