GFL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GFL - GFL Environmental Inc. Subordinate Voting Shares
$37.48
0.06 (0.16%)
▲
5d:
-0.79%
30d:
+11.02%
90d:
-13.96%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
24d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GFL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GFL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$61.67
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$38.29
2.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GFL is currently trading at $37.48, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $34.62 to $36.90. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 29.6) compared to its historical average (34.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 22.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GFL is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $36.30. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GFL has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.97 (+30.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GFL is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $36.30. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GFL has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.97 (+30.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$34.62 -
$36.90
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 30.6% below Wall St target ($48.97)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$34.62 -
$36.90
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$33.33
Resistance Level
$36.30
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
29.59
Wall Street Target
$48.97
(+30.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
22.2%
Profit Margin
3.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
29.6 vs 34.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$35.76
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$34.11
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$32.54
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 30→34)
$37.51
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 29.6, Growth: 38.1%)
$98.68
(+163%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 38.1%)
$72.65
(+94%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 38.1%)
$61.75
(+65%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (48x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (30x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 47.85 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.78
Bull Case
$45.26
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 50.2
Base Case
$37.48
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 47.9
Bear Case
$28.67
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 43.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 29.6 to 34.1
Stabilization Target:
$43.20
(+15.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 7:45 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:45 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:45 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GFL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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