DHI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
DHI - D.R. Horton Inc.
$139.69
1.44 (1.04%)
▲
5d:
+2.74%
30d:
-8.52%
90d:
-3.01%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 21, 2026
15d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: DHI shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: DHI shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$240.10
Based on 10.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$149.08
6.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: DHI is currently trading at $139.69, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $135.60 to $154.21. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.4) is in line with its historical norms (12.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DHI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $140.81. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $160.13 (+14.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DHI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $140.81. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $160.13 (+14.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$135.60 -
$154.21
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($160.13)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$135.60 -
$154.21
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$131.75
Resistance Level
$140.81
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.40
Wall Street Target
$160.13
(+14.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-9.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-22.2%
Profit Margin
10.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.4 vs 12.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$137.04
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$134.43
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$131.88
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→12)
$140.03
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 16.4%)
$397.57
(+185%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.4, Growth: 16.4%)
$220.26
(+58%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.7, Growth: 16.4%)
$187.22
(+34%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.10 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.00
Bull Case
$163.16
(+18%)
Analyst growth 11.4%, PE expands to 13.3
Base Case
$148.33
(+7%)
Market implied 11.4%, PE stable at 12.1
Bear Case
$90.52
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.4 to 12.1
Stabilization Target:
$148.32
(+6.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 05, 2026 12:09 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:09 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:09 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is DHI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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SELL
260 shares
2026-02-13
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BUY
2026-01-29
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2026-01-23
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