PHM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PHM - Pultegroup, Inc.
$133.67
1.08 (0.81%)
▲
5d:
-1.58%
30d:
+13.5%
90d:
+14.1%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
18d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.7/10
Get Alerted When PHM Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PHM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.6% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PHM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.6% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$176.44
Based on 7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$109.56
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PHM is currently trading at $133.67, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $117.27 to $131.51. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.0) is in line with its historical norms (11.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PHM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $123.41. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PHM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PHM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $123.41. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PHM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$117.27 -
$131.51
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($138.08)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.6% growth with -12.4% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$117.27 -
$131.51
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$115.00
Resistance Level
$123.41
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.03
Wall Street Target
$138.08
(+3.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-12.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-30.4%
Profit Margin
12.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.6% premium
PE vs Historical
12.0 vs 11.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$137.15
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$140.71
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$144.37
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$133.22
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 10.9%)
$330.11
(+147%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.0, Growth: 10.9%)
$182.32
(+36%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.2, Growth: 10.9%)
$154.97
(+16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.81 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.35
Bull Case
$156.59
(+17%)
Analyst growth 7.4%, PE expands to 14.1
Base Case
$142.36
(+7%)
Market implied 7.4%, PE stable at 12.8
Bear Case
$90.16
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 6:34 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:34 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:34 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is PHM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kevin A Henry
SELL
5173 shares
2026-02-24
Brien P O'meara
SELL
4000 shares
2026-02-06
Matthew William Koart
SELL
15309 shares
2026-02-06
Top Rated Residential Construction Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Residential Construction by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
TOL
Toll Brothers Inc |
BUY
19 analysts |
$165 | 68 BUY |
|
DHI
DR Horton Inc |
HOLD
21 analysts |
$168 | 60 HOLD |
|
TMHC
Taylor Morn Home |
STRONG BUY
10 analysts |
$67 | 56 HOLD |
|
LEN
Lennar Corporation |
SELL
21 analysts |
$89 | 59 HOLD |
|
TPH
TRI Pointe Homes Inc |
STRONG BUY
6 analysts |
$47 | 53 HOLD |
Advanced PHM Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PHM price and gamma walls.
