TOL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TOL - Toll Brothers, Inc.
$126.22
-5.78 (-4.38%)
▼
5d:
-8.46%
30d:
-9.13%
90d:
-24.02%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 19, 2026
2d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TOL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TOL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$205.69
Based on 7.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$127.72
1.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TOL is currently trading at $126.22, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $134.56 to $145.67. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.9) compared to its historical average (10.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 25.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TOL is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $126.28. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (18th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $168.38 (+33.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TOL is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $126.28. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (18th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $168.38 (+33.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$134.56 -
$145.67
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
18th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TOL? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 18th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading 33.4% below Wall St target ($168.38)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -8.5% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$134.56 -
$145.67
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$6.81
(5.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$126.28
Resistance Level
$143.57
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.91
Wall Street Target
$168.38
(+33.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
25.1%
Profit Margin
12.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.9 vs 10.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$121.17
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$116.32
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$111.67
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$126.64
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 11.1%)
$429.04
(+240%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.9, Growth: 11.1%)
$173.14
(+37%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.6, Growth: 11.1%)
$147.17
(+17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.65 | Current EPS (TTM): $13.77
Bull Case
$150.44
(+19%)
Analyst growth 2.9%, PE expands to 10.6
Base Case
$136.76
(+8%)
Market implied 2.9%, PE stable at 9.7
Bear Case
$90.36
(-28%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.9 to 10.1
Stabilization Target:
$143.14
(+13.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 16, 2026 1:56 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:56 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:56 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TOL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Stephen F East
SELL
1000 shares
2026-04-15
Douglas C Jr. Yearley
SELL
45116 shares
2026-02-24
Paul E Shapiro
SELL
3965 shares
2026-01-15
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Advanced TOL Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TOL price and gamma walls.
