DIS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

DIS - The Walt Disney Company

SERVICES-MISCELLANEOUS AMUSEMENT & RECREATION
$94.85
2.43 (2.63%) ▲
5d: -3.16%
30d: -10.55%
90d: -16.48%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡
Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: DIS trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.9% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$157.97
Based on 7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$98.09
3.3% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.1x Exit PE.

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: DIS is currently trading at $94.85, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $97.15 to $104.66. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.6) compared to its historical average (15.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, DIS is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $92.19. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $129.30 (+39.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range $97.15 - $104.66
Company Quality Score 49/100 (HOLD)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 79.5%

All Signals

  • BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
  • NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BULLISH: Trading 39.9% below Wall St target ($129.30)

Fair Price Analysis

30-Day Fair Range $97.15 - $104.66
Current vs Fair Value OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $92.19
Resistance Level $101.02
Current Trend Downtrend
Technical data as of Mar 30, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 12.58
Wall Street Target $129.30 (+39.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 5.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY) -4.3%
Profit Margin 12.8%
Valuation Discount vs History -5.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical 12.6 vs 15.1 CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): -5.9% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $86.97 (-6%)
2-Year Target $81.84 (-12%)
3-Year Target $77.01 (-17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 13→15) $92.44 (0%)
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 22.4, Growth: 10.7%) $223.01 (+141%)
Base: (SPY PE: 12.6, Growth: 10.7%) $125.23 (+36%)
Bear: (PE: 10.7, Growth: 10.7%) $106.45 (+15%)
📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.66 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.79
Bull Case $118.59 (+21%)
Analyst growth 8.3%, PE expands to 16.1
Base Case $107.81 (+10%)
Market implied 8.3%, PE stable at 14.7
Bear Case $67.67 (-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡 Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.6 to 15.1
Stabilization Target: $110.94 (+20.0%)
PE Expansion Potential: +20.0%
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Last updated: March 30, 2026 12:18 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:18 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
Ticker Score Recommendation Change %
Insider Activity (6 Months)
9
Buys
7
Sells
+
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna SELL 2026-02-24
Ro Khanna SELL 2026-02-17
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr. SELL 2026-02-10

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