TKO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TKO - TKO Group Holdings, Inc.
$191.50
-0.13 (-0.07%)
▼
5d:
+0.75%
30d:
+2.81%
90d:
-7.02%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TKO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.4% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TKO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.4% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$156.94
Based on 5.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$97.45
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TKO is currently trading at $191.50, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $183.99 to $191.81. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 39.8) compared to its historical average (34.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TKO is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $196.75. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TKO has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $234.39 (+22.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TKO is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $196.75. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TKO has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $234.39 (+22.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$183.99 -
$191.81
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.0%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.4% below Wall St target ($234.39)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 5.4% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$183.99 -
$191.81
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$182.00
Resistance Level
$196.75
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
39.77
Wall Street Target
$234.39
(+22.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
25.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
63.0%
Profit Margin
4.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.4% premium
PE vs Historical
39.8 vs 34.0
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$201.84
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$212.74
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$224.23
(+17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 40→34)
PE COMPRESSION
$191.72
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 39.8, Growth: 6.9%)
$233.78
(+22%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.0, Growth: 6.9%)
$129.28
(-33%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.7, Growth: 6.9%)
$109.88
(-43%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (49x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (40x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 48.78 | Forward EPS (Implied): $3.93
Bull Case
$231.24
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 51.2
Base Case
$191.50
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 48.8
Bear Case
$146.50
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 43.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 26, 2026 7:01 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:01 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:01 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TKO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Nick Khan
SELL
9518 shares
2026-04-06
Shane Kapral
SELL
254 shares
2026-03-09
Shane Kapral
SELL
616 shares
2026-03-03
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