DLTR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
DLTR - Dollar Tree Inc.
$106.72
-0.28 (-0.26%)
▼
5d:
-1.43%
30d:
-15.62%
90d:
-13.9%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 21, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
DLTR is down 8.7% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $170 2026-05-15 with 2,043 OI. Call ratio: 63% View Scanner →
Strength: 5.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: DLTR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: DLTR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$208.64
Based on 10.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$129.55
17.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: DLTR is currently trading at $106.72, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $106.85 to $125.36. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.9) compared to its historical average (18.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 10.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DLTR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $103.00, while resistance sits at $117.06.
Market Sentiment: DLTR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $125.26 (+17.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DLTR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $103.00, while resistance sits at $117.06.
Market Sentiment: DLTR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $125.26 (+17.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$106.85 -
$125.36
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding DLTR? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($125.26)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$106.85 -
$125.36
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$103.00
Resistance Level
$117.06
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.87
Wall Street Target
$125.26
(+17.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
10.6%
Profit Margin
6.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.9 vs 18.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$101.33
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$95.96
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$90.87
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→19)
$107.08
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 17.4%)
$244.19
(+128%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.9, Growth: 17.4%)
$173.00
(+62%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.5, Growth: 17.4%)
$147.05
(+37%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.83 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.94
Bull Case
$132.25
(+22%)
Analyst growth 13.5%, PE expands to 19.6
Base Case
$120.22
(+11%)
Market implied 13.5%, PE stable at 17.8
Bear Case
$72.03
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.9 to 18.7
Stabilization Target:
$126.08
(+17.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 12:02 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:02 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:02 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is DLTR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
SELL
2026-01-28
Michael T. McCaul
SELL
2026-01-13
Robert Aflatooni
SELL
175 shares
2026-01-07
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's DLTR price and gamma walls.
