DLTR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
DLTR - Dollar Tree Inc.
$117.59
0.28 (0.24%)
▲
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 24, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: DLTR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: DLTR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$215.72
Based on 10.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$133.94
12.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: DLTR is currently trading at $117.59, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $121.26 to $135.36. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.5) compared to its historical average (19.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 10.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DLTR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $116.02. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DLTR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $116.02. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$121.26 -
$135.36
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding DLTR? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($122.26)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -8.8% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$121.26 -
$135.36
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$116.02
Resistance Level
$141.85
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.48
Wall Street Target
$122.26
(+4.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
10.6%
Profit Margin
-15.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.5 vs 19.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$112.85
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$108.56
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$104.44
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→20)
$117.08
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 17.0%)
$239.84
(+105%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.5, Growth: 17.0%)
$188.04
(+60%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.9, Growth: 17.0%)
$159.84
(+36%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.56 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.28
Bull Case
$166.48
(+42%)
Analyst growth 27.1%, PE expands to 24.8
Base Case
$151.35
(+29%)
Market implied 27.1%, PE stable at 22.6
Bear Case
$80.99
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.5 to 19.6
Stabilization Target:
$131.51
(+12.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.1%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 7:48 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:48 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:48 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is DLTR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Robert Aflatooni
SELL
1260 shares
2025-10-17
Ro Khanna
SELL
2025-09-29
Michael T. McCaul
BUY
2025-09-26
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