EL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EL - The Estee Lauder Companies Inc. Class A
$115.28
0.07 (0.06%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 05, 2026
4d
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1 traders called EL this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: EL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: EL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$143.22
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$88.93
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EL is currently trading at $115.28, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $107.52 to $116.54. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 39.2) is in line with its historical norms (41.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EL is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $112.50. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EL is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $112.50. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$107.52 -
$116.54
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($109.58)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$107.52 -
$116.54
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$112.50
Resistance Level
$120.27
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
39.16
Wall Street Target
$109.58
(-4.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-51.6%
Profit Margin
-6.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
39.2 vs 41.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$112.56
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$109.97
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$107.44
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 39→42)
$114.95
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 39.2, Growth: 35.6%)
$287.08
(+149%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 35.6%)
$163.47
(+42%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 35.6%)
$138.95
(+21%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 39.2 to 41.9
Stabilization Target:
$123.26
(+7.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.0%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 8:12 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:12 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:12 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is EL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Michael T. McCaul
SELL
2025-09-30
Lynn Forester
SELL
3702 shares
2025-08-29
Lande Rashida La
SELL
6417 shares
2025-08-28
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