ENSG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

ENSG - The Ensign Group, Inc.

SERVICES-SKILLED NURSING CARE FACILITIES
$156.93
6.22 (4.13%) ▲
5d: +1.08%
30d: -11.67%
90d: -25.41%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 16, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡
Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ENSG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$276.73
Based on 7.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$171.83
8.7% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.6x Exit PE.

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: ENSG is currently trading at $156.93, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $160.17 to $178.40. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 18.8) compared to its historical average (23.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 21.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, ENSG is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $151.21, while resistance sits at $173.16. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.1% recently.

Market Sentiment: ENSG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $220.40 (+40.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range $160.17 - $178.40
Company Quality Score 51/100 (HOLD)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 61.9%

All Signals

  • BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
  • BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.1%)
  • BULLISH: Trading 40.4% below Wall St target ($220.40)

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $160.17 - $178.40
Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $151.21
Resistance Level $173.16
Current Trend Downtrend
Technical data as of Jun 9, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 18.84
Wall Street Target $220.40 (+40.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 18.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY) 21.9%
Profit Margin 6.9%
Valuation Discount vs History -7.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical 18.8 vs 23.6 CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): -7.2% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $145.63 (-7%)
2-Year Target $135.15 (-14%)
3-Year Target $125.42 (-20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 19→24) $157.11 (+0%)
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 21.8, Growth: 10.2%) $242.90 (+55%)
Base: (SPY PE: 18.8, Growth: 10.2%) $210.10 (+34%)
Bear: (PE: 16.0, Growth: 10.2%) $178.58 (+14%)
📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.35 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.19
Bull Case $223.10 (+42%)
Analyst growth 34.6%, PE expands to 26.8
Base Case $202.82 (+29%)
Market implied 34.6%, PE stable at 24.4
Bear Case $102.48 (-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡 Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.8 to 23.6
Stabilization Target: $196.59 (+25.3%)
PE Expansion Potential: +25.3%
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Last updated: June 17, 2026 12:38 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:38 AM
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Ticker Score Recommendation Change %
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
15
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
John O Agwunobi SELL 392 shares 2026-04-20
Mark Vincent Parkinson SELL 100 shares 2026-04-16
Barry M Smith SELL 700 shares 2026-04-02

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