ERIE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ERIE - Erie Indemnity Co
$283.01
0.91 (0.32%)
▲
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 26, 2026
24d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ERIE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ERIE shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$414.61
Based on 7.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$257.44
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ERIE is currently trading at $283.01, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $278.29 to $286.10. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 20.2) is in line with its historical norms (20.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 14.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ERIE is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $290.08. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ERIE has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $115.00. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ERIE is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $290.08. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ERIE has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $115.00. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$278.29 -
$286.10
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
32th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
46.2%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ERIE? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 32th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 59.4% above Wall St target ($115.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$278.29 -
$286.10
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$10.64
(3.8%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$270.07
Resistance Level
$290.08
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.20
Wall Street Target
$115.00
(-59.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
14.4%
Profit Margin
16.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.2 vs 20.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$281.88
(0%)
2-Year Target
$280.75
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$279.63
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→21)
$283.77
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 11.3%)
$430.51
(+52%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 11.3%)
$389.98
(+38%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.2, Growth: 11.3%)
$331.48
(+17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.06 | Current EPS (TTM): $12.40
Bull Case
$339.95
(+20%)
Analyst growth 13.0%, PE expands to 24.3
Base Case
$309.05
(+9%)
Market implied 13.0%, PE stable at 22.1
Bear Case
$186.00
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.2 to 20.5
Stabilization Target:
$287.20
(+1.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.5%
Last updated: February 01, 2026 1:25 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:25 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:25 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ERIE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2025-09-29
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Advanced ERIE Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ERIE price and gamma walls.
