EXP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EXP - Eagle Materials, Inc.
$190.96
1.51 (0.80%)
▲
5d:
+2.29%
30d:
-10.72%
90d:
-9.14%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 19, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: EXP shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: EXP shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$208.29
Based on 1.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$129.33
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EXP is currently trading at $190.96, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $180.14 to $214.14. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.2) is in line with its historical norms (15.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EXP is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $193.99. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: EXP has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $222.55 (+16.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EXP is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $193.99. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: EXP has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $222.55 (+16.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$180.14 -
$214.14
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($222.55)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$180.14 -
$214.14
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$171.99
Resistance Level
$193.99
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.19
Wall Street Target
$222.55
(+16.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-9.6%
Profit Margin
18.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.2 vs 15.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$188.67
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$186.40
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$184.17
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→16)
$190.38
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: -1.8%)
$265.90
(+39%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.2, Growth: -1.8%)
$180.68
(-5%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.9, Growth: -1.8%)
$153.58
(-20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 13.09 | Current EPS (TTM): $13.22
Bull Case
$181.07
(-1%)
Analyst growth -4.9%, PE expands to 14.4
Base Case
$164.61
(-10%)
Market implied -4.9%, PE stable at 13.1
Bear Case
$117.69
(-36%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.2 to 15.7
Stabilization Target:
$197.41
(+3.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 4:13 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:13 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:13 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is EXP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
David E Rush
BUY
1000 shares
2025-11-05
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