EXR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EXR - Extra Space Storage, Inc.
$137.97
-0.90 (-0.65%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 19, 2026
18d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: EXR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.2% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: EXR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.2% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$150.06
Based on 4.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$93.17
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EXR is currently trading at $137.97, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $131.59 to $143.39. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 29.2) is in line with its historical norms (28.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.2% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EXR is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $136.31. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EXR is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $136.31. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$131.59 -
$143.39
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($150.95)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.2% growth with 3.4% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$131.59 -
$143.39
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$136.31
Resistance Level
$149.99
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
29.18
Wall Street Target
$150.95
(+8.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-14.2%
Profit Margin
27.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.2% premium
PE vs Historical
29.2 vs 28.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$140.54
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$142.22
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$143.93
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 29→28)
PE COMPRESSION
$138.62
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 29.2, Growth: 5.5%)
$163.05
(+17%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 5.5%)
$124.62
(-10%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 5.5%)
$105.93
(-24%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (31x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (29x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 30.68 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.47
Bull Case
$160.65
(+16%)
Analyst growth 6.5%, PE expands to 33.8
Base Case
$146.05
(+6%)
Market implied 6.5%, PE stable at 30.7
Bear Case
$93.27
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 11:12 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:12 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:12 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is EXR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
3
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Joseph D Margolis
SELL
7500 shares
2025-10-01
Ro Khanna
BUY
2025-09-29
Ro Khanna
BUY
2025-09-05
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's EXR price and gamma walls.
