EXR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EXR - Extra Space Storage, Inc.
$133.86
1.37 (1.03%)
▲
5d:
+2.58%
30d:
-10.97%
90d:
+2.8%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
EXR is down 4.0% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $150 2026-06-18 with 515 OI. Call ratio: 84% View Scanner →
Strength: 5.4/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: EXR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: EXR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$151.36
Based on 4.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$93.98
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EXR is currently trading at $133.86, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $132.11 to $148.30. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 27.5) is in line with its historical norms (28.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 15.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EXR is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $136.07. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: EXR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $152.85 (+15.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EXR is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $136.07. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: EXR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $152.85 (+15.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$132.11 -
$148.30
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
63.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($152.85)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$132.11 -
$148.30
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$5.72
(4.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$127.65
Resistance Level
$136.07
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
27.47
Wall Street Target
$152.85
(+15.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
15.8%
Profit Margin
28.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
27.5 vs 28.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$130.64
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$128.81
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$127.00
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 27→29)
$132.71
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 27.5, Growth: 5.3%)
$154.61
(+17%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 5.3%)
$125.81
(-5%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 5.3%)
$106.94
(-19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (27x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.38 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.59
Bull Case
$150.33
(+14%)
Analyst growth 4.9%, PE expands to 31.2
Base Case
$136.66
(+4%)
Market implied 4.9%, PE stable at 28.4
Bear Case
$88.58
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 27.5 to 28.7
Stabilization Target:
$138.44
(+4.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 5:01 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:01 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:01 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is EXR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Joseph D Margolis
SELL
7500 shares
2026-03-13
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-01-29
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-01-22
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Advanced EXR Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's EXR price and gamma walls.
