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F Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

F - Ford Motor Company

MOTOR VEHICLES & PASSENGER CAR BODIES
$12.34
-0.47 (-3.67%) ▼
5d: -14.37%
30d: -10.12%
90d: -4.78%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
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Analysis Updated: Mar 5, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 04, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation

F is down 13.8% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $15 2026-04-17 with 18,849 OI. Call ratio: 68% View Scanner →

Strength: 8.7/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡
Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: F is down 14.4% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$27.59
Based on 11.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.13
28.0% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.7x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: F is currently trading at $12.34, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.27 to $14.21. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.0) compared to its historical average (8.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 172.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, F is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $12.55. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.7% recently.

Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range $13.27 - $14.21
Company Quality Score 55/100 (HOLD)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 70.0%

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All Signals

  • BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
  • NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.7%)
  • NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($13.99)
  • WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -14.4% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization

Fair Price Analysis

30-Day Fair Range $13.27 - $14.21
Current vs Fair Value OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $12.55
Resistance Level $14.80
Current Trend Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of Mar 5, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 7.03
Wall Street Target $13.99 (+9.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) -4.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY) 172.7%
Profit Margin -4.4%
Valuation Discount vs History -6.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical 7.0 vs 8.7 CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): -6.9% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $11.93 (-7%)
2-Year Target $11.10 (-13%)
3-Year Target $10.34 (-19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 7→9) $12.80 (0%)
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 22.6, Growth: 19.7%) $70.55 (+451%)
Base: (SPY PE: 7.0, Growth: 19.7%) $21.95 (+71%)
Bear: (PE: 6.0, Growth: 19.7%) $18.66 (+46%)
💡 Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.0 to 8.7
Stabilization Target: $15.86 (+23.8%)
PE Expansion Potential: +23.8%
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Last updated: March 06, 2026 6:41 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:41 AM
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
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Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL

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