FAST Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FAST - Fastenal Co
$45.13
0.17 (0.39%)
▲
5d:
+1.52%
30d:
-1.99%
90d:
+8.58%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 13, 2026
13d
Smart Money Accumulation
FAST is down 3.2% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $50 2026-05-15 with 3,876 OI. Call ratio: 90% View Scanner →
Strength: 5.6/10
Get Alerted When FAST Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FAST shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FAST shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$47.99
Based on 7.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$29.80
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FAST is currently trading at $45.12, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $44.82 to $46.43. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 33.0) is in line with its historical norms (33.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 9.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FAST is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $46.16. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FAST is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $46.16. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$44.82 -
$46.43
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($44.99)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$44.82 -
$46.43
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$43.47
Resistance Level
$46.16
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
33.03
Wall Street Target
$44.99
(+0.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
9.3%
Profit Margin
15.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
33.0 vs 33.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$44.55
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$44.14
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$43.75
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 33→34)
$44.89
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 33.0, Growth: 10.3%)
$60.31
(+34%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 10.3%)
$40.89
(-9%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 10.3%)
$34.76
(-23%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (40x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (33x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 40.15 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.09
Bull Case
$59.94
(+35%)
Analyst growth 24.5%, PE expands to 44.2
Base Case
$54.49
(+23%)
Market implied 24.5%, PE stable at 40.2
Bear Case
$29.76
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 34.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 33.0 to 33.9
Stabilization Target:
$46.13
(+2.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 1:26 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:26 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:26 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is FAST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
5
Buys
2
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Reyne K Wisecup
SELL
36920 shares
2026-03-05
Scott Satterlee
SELL
15964 shares
2026-01-23
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-01-23
Top Rated Industrial Distribution Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Industrial Distribution by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
FERG
Ferguson Plc |
BUY
24 analysts |
$262 | 56 HOLD |
|
WCC
WESCO International Inc |
STRONG BUY
13 analysts |
$314 | 58 HOLD |
|
CNM
Core & Main Inc |
STRONG BUY
14 analysts |
$61 | 55 HOLD |
|
AIT
Applied Industrial Techn… |
STRONG BUY
8 analysts |
$305 | 58 HOLD |
|
XMTR
Xometry Inc |
STRONG BUY
10 analysts |
$62 | 52 HOLD |
Advanced FAST Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's FAST price and gamma walls.
