FAST Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FAST - Fastenal Co
$43.36
0.04 (0.09%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 13, 2026
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2 traders called FAST this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FAST shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FAST shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$46.75
Based on 6.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$29.03
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FAST is currently trading at $43.36, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $41.10 to $43.66. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 32.3) is in line with its historical norms (33.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 13.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FAST is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $41.26, while resistance sits at $44.95.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FAST is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $41.26, while resistance sits at $44.95.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$41.10 -
$43.66
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($44.53)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$41.10 -
$43.66
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$41.26
Resistance Level
$44.95
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
32.31
Wall Street Target
$44.53
(+2.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
13.8%
Profit Margin
15.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
32.3 vs 33.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$42.63
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$41.94
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$41.27
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 32→34)
$43.30
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 32.3, Growth: 9.8%)
$57.28
(+32%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 9.8%)
$39.53
(-9%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 9.8%)
$33.60
(-22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (40x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (32x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 40.32 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.09
Bull Case
$59.46
(+37%)
Analyst growth 23.0%, PE expands to 44.4
Base Case
$54.06
(+25%)
Market implied 23.0%, PE stable at 40.3
Bear Case
$29.89
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 34.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 32.3 to 33.9
Stabilization Target:
$45.45
(+4.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.9%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:35 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:35 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:35 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FAST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Hsenghung Sam Hsu
BUY
1000 shares
2025-10-16
William Joseph Drazkowski
SELL
6842 shares
2025-08-15
Jeffery Michael Watts
SELL
48724 shares
2025-08-08
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