FFIN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FFIN - First Financial Bankshares Inc
$31.10
-0.30 (-0.96%)
▼
5d:
-3.6%
30d:
+0.45%
90d:
-7.11%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 16, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FFIN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FFIN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$40.75
Based on 4.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$25.30
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FFIN is currently trading at $31.10, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $31.16 to $32.42. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.6) is in line with its historical norms (15.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 16.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FFIN is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $30.89. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FFIN is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $30.89. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$31.16 -
$32.42
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($33.75)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$31.16 -
$32.42
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$30.89
Resistance Level
$32.96
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.55
Wall Street Target
$33.75
(+8.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
16.4%
Profit Margin
42.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.6 vs 15.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$30.57
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$30.05
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$29.54
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→15)
$31.06
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 5.0%)
$54.67
(+76%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.5, Growth: 5.0%)
$36.04
(+16%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.4, Growth: 5.0%)
$30.63
(-2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.07 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.84
Bull Case
$40.12
(+29%)
Analyst growth 16.2%, PE expands to 18.8
Base Case
$36.48
(+17%)
Market implied 16.2%, PE stable at 17.1
Bear Case
$21.35
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.5 to 15.3
Stabilization Target:
$32.70
(+5.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 8:38 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:38 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:38 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FFIN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
9
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Murray Hamilton Edwards
BUY
1000 shares
2026-03-13
Geoff Haney
BUY
1500 shares
2026-03-12
Johnny Trotter
BUY
1000 shares
2026-03-12
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