FFIN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FFIN - First Financial Bankshares Inc
$34.88
-0.57 (-1.61%)
▼
5d:
-0.17%
30d:
+6.86%
90d:
+16.85%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 16, 2026
11d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: FFIN is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: FFIN is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$40.94
Based on 4.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$25.42
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FFIN is currently trading at $34.88, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $32.03 to $33.73. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.3) is in line with its historical norms (15.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FFIN is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $33.71. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FFIN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FFIN is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $33.71. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FFIN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$32.03 -
$33.73
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($34.80)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$32.03 -
$33.73
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$31.70
Resistance Level
$33.71
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.28
Wall Street Target
$34.80
(-0.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
16.4%
Profit Margin
42.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.0% premium
PE vs Historical
16.3 vs 15.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$35.58
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$36.29
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$37.01
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$34.78
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 5.1%)
$54.17
(+55%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.3, Growth: 5.1%)
$40.50
(+16%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.8, Growth: 5.1%)
$34.42
(-1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.27 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.84
Bull Case
$45.40
(+30%)
Analyst growth 16.4%, PE expands to 21.2
Base Case
$41.27
(+18%)
Market implied 16.4%, PE stable at 19.3
Bear Case
$24.11
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 8:23 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:23 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:23 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FFIN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
9
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Murray Hamilton Edwards
BUY
1000 shares
2026-03-13
Geoff Haney
BUY
1500 shares
2026-03-12
Johnny Trotter
BUY
1000 shares
2026-03-12
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