FIVE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FIVE - Five Below, Inc. Common Stock
$191.64
3.25 (1.73%)
▲
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 18, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: FIVE appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.9% annual earnings decline despite 2100% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: FIVE appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.9% annual earnings decline despite 2100% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$224.21
Based on 5.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$139.21
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FIVE is currently trading at $191.64, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $188.21 to $198.46. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 27.6) compared to its historical average (32.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 2100% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FIVE is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $183.64, while resistance sits at $202.50.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $216.62 (+15.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FIVE is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $183.64, while resistance sits at $202.50.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $216.62 (+15.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$188.21 -
$198.46
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($216.62)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$188.21 -
$198.46
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$12.29
(6.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$183.64
Resistance Level
$202.50
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
27.64
Wall Street Target
$216.62
(+15.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
23.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
2100.0%
Profit Margin
7.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
27.6 vs 32.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$179.16
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$170.38
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$162.03
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 28→32)
$188.16
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 27.6, Growth: 7.3%)
$232.47
(+23%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 7.3%)
$187.55
(0%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 7.3%)
$159.41
(-15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (33x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (28x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 33.35 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.56
Bull Case
$250.01
(+31%)
Analyst growth 22.6%, PE expands to 36.7
Base Case
$227.29
(+19%)
Market implied 22.6%, PE stable at 33.4
Bear Case
$126.09
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 28.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 27.6 to 32.1
Stabilization Target:
$218.77
(+16.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.1%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 11:39 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:39 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:39 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FIVE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ronald James Masciantonio
SELL
818 shares
2025-08-29
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Advanced FIVE Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's FIVE price and gamma walls.
