FIVE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FIVE - Five Below, Inc. Common Stock
$234.92
6.44 (2.82%)
▲
5d:
+0.54%
30d:
+6.03%
90d:
+24.57%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Mar 25, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
FIVE is up 10.0% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $220 2026-05-15 with 2,498 OI. Put ratio: 82% View Scanner →
Strength: 8.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FIVE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.9% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FIVE shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.9% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$254.39
Based on 7.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$157.96
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FIVE is currently trading at $234.92, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $215.84 to $229.12. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 33.3) is in line with its historical norms (31.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FIVE is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $237.50. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FIVE has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $261.09 (+11.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FIVE is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $237.50. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FIVE has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $261.09 (+11.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$215.84 -
$229.12
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($261.09)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$215.84 -
$229.12
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$14.33
(6.1%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$208.62
Resistance Level
$237.50
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
33.33
Wall Street Target
$261.09
(+11.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
24.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
26.3%
Profit Margin
7.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.9% premium
PE vs Historical
33.3 vs 31.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$239.38
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$243.93
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$248.57
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 33→32)
PE COMPRESSION
$234.94
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 33.3, Growth: 11.3%)
$324.04
(+38%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 11.3%)
$217.31
(-8%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 11.3%)
$184.71
(-21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (41x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (33x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 40.83 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.57
Bull Case
$316.58
(+37%)
Analyst growth 26.5%, PE expands to 44.9
Base Case
$287.80
(+25%)
Market implied 26.5%, PE stable at 40.8
Bear Case
$154.65
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 34.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 7:26 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:26 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:26 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FIVE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kenneth R Bull
SELL
1925 shares
2026-01-15
Eric M Specter
SELL
8500 shares
2026-01-13
Kenneth R Bull
SELL
5100 shares
2026-01-13
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Advanced FIVE Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's FIVE price and gamma walls.
