FOUR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FOUR - Shift4 Payments, Inc.
$51.35
2.15 (4.37%)
▲
5d:
+17.29%
30d:
+18.62%
90d:
+20.51%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
29d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: FOUR is 13.8% above its trading range ($45.11). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: FOUR is 13.8% above its trading range ($45.11). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$94.34
Based on 12.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$58.58
12.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FOUR is currently trading at $51.35, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $38.36 to $45.11. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.6) is in line with its historical norms (7.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FOUR is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $51.38. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: FOUR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $60.14 (+17.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FOUR is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $51.38. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: FOUR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $60.14 (+17.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$38.36 -
$45.11
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding FOUR? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+13.8% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($60.14)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$38.36 -
$45.11
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$38.23
Resistance Level
$51.38
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.61
Wall Street Target
$60.14
(+17.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
32.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-72.2%
Profit Margin
2.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.6 vs 7.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$50.99
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$50.63
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$50.28
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
$51.52
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 21.1%)
$261.21
(+409%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.6, Growth: 21.1%)
$91.30
(+78%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.5, Growth: 21.1%)
$77.60
(+51%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 8.82 | Forward EPS (Implied): $5.82
Bull Case
$62.01
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 9.3
Base Case
$51.35
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 8.8
Bear Case
$39.28
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 7.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.6 to 7.8
Stabilization Target:
$52.61
(+2.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 05, 2026 2:29 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:29 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:29 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FOUR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Jared Isaacman
BUY
43827 shares
2026-03-10
Jared Isaacman
BUY
45693 shares
2026-03-02
Jared Isaacman
BUY
159244 shares
2026-02-27
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