What is the fair value of FOUR stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for FOUR to be between $38.36 and $45.11. The current price is $51.35.

What is the analyst price target for FOUR?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for FOUR is $60.14. This implies a potential upside of 17.1% from current levels.

FOUR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

FOUR - Shift4 Payments, Inc.

SERVICES-BUSINESS SERVICES, NEC

$51.35

2.15 (4.37%) ▲

5d: +17.29%

30d: +18.62%

90d: +20.51%

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

Protect Your FOUR Gains

Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Aug 04, 2026 30d

Smart Money Distribution

None View Scanner →

Strength: 6.8/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: FOUR is 13.8% above its trading range ($45.11). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 21.1%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$94.34

Based on 12.6% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$58.58

12.3% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.8x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: FOUR is currently trading at $51.35, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $38.36 to $45.11. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.6) is in line with its historical norms (7.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, FOUR is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $51.38. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.4% recently.

Market Sentiment: FOUR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $60.14 (+17.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $38.36 - $45.11

Company Quality Score 63/100 (BUY)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 54.8%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+13.8% above its trading range)
BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.4%)
BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($60.14)

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $38.36 - $45.11

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $38.23

Resistance Level $51.38

Current Trend Downtrend

Technical data as of Jul 2, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 7.61

Wall Street Target $60.14 (+17.1%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 32.2%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -72.2%

Profit Margin 2.6%

Valuation Discount vs History -0.7% cheaper

PE vs Historical 7.6 vs 7.8 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -0.7% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $50.99 (-1%)

2-Year Target $50.63 (-1%)

3-Year Target $50.28 (-2%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 8→8) $51.52 (+0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 21.8, Growth: 21.1%) $261.21 (+409%)

Base: (SPY PE: 7.6, Growth: 21.1%) $91.30 (+78%)

Bear: (PE: 6.5, Growth: 21.1%) $77.60 (+51%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.

Forward PE: 8.82 | Forward EPS (Implied): $5.82

Bull Case $62.01 (+21%)

Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 9.3

Base Case $51.35 (0%)

Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 8.8

Bear Case $39.28 (-24%)

Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 7.9

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.6 to 7.8

Stabilization Target: $52.61 (+2.5%)

PE Expansion Potential: +2.5%

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Last updated: July 04, 2026 11:53 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:53 PM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

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INSIDERS BUYING

Recent Transactions

Jared Isaacman BUY 43827 shares 2026-03-10

Jared Isaacman BUY 45693 shares 2026-03-02

Jared Isaacman BUY 159244 shares 2026-02-27

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